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Friday, September 28, 2012

UFC on Fuel 5 Predictions




Sam’s Picks
Main Card
Stefan Struve vs. Stipe Miocic: The betting lines for this fight are really surprising me. Everyone is thinking that Miocic is going to absolutely destroy Struve and basically knock him out in the first round. I really don't see that happening. Struve, as I said before (Dark Horse article here), is one of the most underrated fighters in the UFC. Because he has lost a few fights by KO, people are instantly saying he has a horrible chin. Although he doesn't have a good chin, it isn't as bad as people make it out to be. Now, Miocic is amazingly well rounded. Being a well established collegiate wrestler and a gold gloves boxing champion. That's impressive to say the least. But Struve has been fighting extremely smart as of late, bringing it to the ground when he needs to, which is clearly his strong suit. One huge weakness that I have seen in Miocic is his conditioning; it's subpar. In the Joey Beltran fight, he started to drastically slow down in the later rounds. If he does that, Struve will take him down and submit him. But I even see Struve doing that earlier, rather than later = Struve via 2nd round submission (armbar). My pick for SOTN!

Dan Hardy vs. Amir Sadollah: Dan Hardy finally gets to fight in front of his hometown of Nottingham, England. I'm looking forward to this fight more than I thought I would. Dan Hardy looked awesome in his last fight in his vicious KO win over Duane Ludwig. And Amir Sadollah looked horrible in his last fight with Jorge Lopez. Dan should easily win this fight = Hardy via 1st round TKO.

John Hathaway vs. John Maguire: This is an interesting fight to me. Two young, promising British welterweights looking to establish themselves as title contenders. Hathaway has a clear advantage in the standup, but Maguire has a slight advantage in the ground game, specifically with submissions. Maguire has sweet submissions but Hathaway has a solid top game. This is pretty hard to pick but I'm going with what makes more sense = Hathaway via unanimous decision.

Brad Pickett vs. Yves Jabouin: BARNBURNER ALERT - Before I start talking about this fight itself, I just want to say that I love the way that Pickett fights. He puts everything on the line every time he goes out there. He seems to always be in the FOTN every time he's out there. Anyway, I think this is a very easy fight to pick. Jabouin may have a slight advantage in the technical aspect of striking but everywhere else, Pickett has the advantage. Especially in the submissions = Picket via 3rd round submission (guillotine). My 1st pick for FOTN!

Paul Sass vs. Matt Wiman: I am really looking forward to what Paul Sass can do in the future. He has looked unstoppable since being signed to the UFC. I'm also a fan of people who pull guard, and finish the fight. But Matt Wiman may be way too big of a step up. Wiman is a legitimate title contender and Sass' biggest win has been over Jacob Volkmann, who isn't anywhere near Wiman's level. I see Wiman winning everywhere the fight goes = Wiman via unanimous decision.

Che Mills vs. Duane Ludwig: Mills is one of the most promising welterweights in the UFC. He holds some insane power. I mean, like crazy power. That is what is going to win him the fight. I love Ludwig, but his career is starting to close in on him fast = Mills via 1st round KO. My pick for KOOTN!

Prelims
Kyle Kingsbury vs. Jimi Manuwa = Manuwa via 1st round TKO.
Andy Ogle vs. Akira Corassani = Ogle via 3rd round submission (RNC). My 3rd pick for FOTN! (Interview here)
Tom Watson vs. Brad Tavares = Watson via unanimous decision. My 2nd pick for FOTN!
DaMarques Johnson vs. Gunnar Nelson = Nelson via 1st round submission (arm).
Robbie Peralta vs. Jason Young = Young via split decision.


Dave’s Picks
Main Card
Stefan Struve vs. Stipe Miocic: Oh man I can’t wait for this one. Struve has never had a boring fight and Stipe is a bruiser. Everyone knows I am a huge Struve fan and when he fights smart and puts all of his tools together, he can beat anyone in the world. He is still super young and his height and reach advantage are huge. Stipe is also another very exciting young fighter with decent wrestling and striking power. I see Struve playing it smart and trying to keep his distance using his sizable reach advantage and eventually taking it to the ground and finishing Stipe. = Struve by submission in round 2. My Pick for Submission of the Night!

Dan Hardy vs. Amir Sadollah: Hardy is coming off of a huge, and much needed, win and is fighting at home for the first time in years. Sadollah has never impressed me at all for one second. He is super funny and I like reading his tweets but Hardy is going to hand him his pink slip. = Hardy by TKO in round 2. My Pick for KO of the Night!

John Hathaway vs. John Maguire: This fight will show us a lot about their futures in the UFC. Both of them are talented young guys with the possibility of doing some big things. I think this one will be a stinker though. I see Hathaway controlling a long boring fight and ending up with the W. = Hathaway by unanimous decision.

Brad Pickett vs. Yves Jabouin: Awesome fight! This fight will be sick and filled with tons of striking. I think Pickett will out-point Jabouin and maybe even finish him after landing a huge combo. Look for this one to set Pickett up for another huge contender match. = Pickett by unanimous decision. My Pick for Fight of the Night!

Paul Sass vs. Matt Wiman: I agree with Sam that Sass is great but not ready for Wiman. If Wiman fights smart and safe he will easily win this one. However, if Sass wins, especially by submission, he will be ready for the big names. This fight should be fun. = Wiman by unanimous decision.

Che Mills vs. Duane Ludwig: Che Mills hits with a ton of force and Ludwig’s chin is gone. I’m a huge “Bang” fan but Mills is going to light him up. = Mills by KO in round 1.

Prelims
Kyle Kingsbury vs. Jimi Manuwa = Manuwa by TKO in round 3.
Andy Ogle vs. Akira Corassani = Ogle by unanimous decision. (Interview here)
Tom Watson vs. Brad Tavares = Watson by split decision.
DaMarques Johnson vs. Gunnar Nelson = Nelson by split decision.
Robbie Peralta vs. Jason Young = Peralta by unanimous decision.

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