UFC 154: St. Pierre vs. Condit Predictions

Dave’s Picks

Main Card

Georges St. Pierre vs. Carlos Condit: Such a fun fight! I am a huge GSP fan and I am so happy he has recovered from that horrific injury. I am very nervous he will not be the same fighter he was before but he did everything a human can possibly do to recover from a knee injury. Carlos Condit has finally put it altogether and has reached his peak. He is a smart, calculated and intense fighter who is very well rounded. But here is the big issue for me. Condit’s takedown defense has always been his weakest point in his game. GSP arguably has the best double leg takedown in MMA. I think Condit has the best chance to beat GSP in over 5 years but I think the safest bet is GSP smothering Condit and staying out of Condit’s deadly submission game. I like both of these guys but I would hate to see GSP comeback just to lose and I have a fear he might retire if he does. I’ll be watching this one while covering my eyes with my hands. = GSP by unanimous decision. My Pick for Fight of the Night!

Martin Kampmann vs. Johny Hendricks: This fight is the hardest for me to pick. I have picked against Kampmann in his last two fights and in both of those fights Kampmann was getting destroyed and then won with barely anytime on the clock. Those were two crazy fights. I feel like picking against Kampmann again but with the obvious fear the same will happen. I have no idea what to do. Hendricks should be able to destroy Kampmann in the wrestling department but sometimes can be stubborn because he wants the KO so badly. I just see this fight being a grinding win for Hendricks by out wrestling the dangerous Kampmann. But my warning to you all is do not stop watching this fight because Kampmann is the king of comebacks. = Hendricks by unanimous decision.

Francis Carmont vs. Tom Lawlor: I have been very impressed with Carmont. He looked great in his last fight against Vemola. Lawlor looked good in his last fight as well. However, Lawlor has always relied on his size and strength advantage but I think that will not be a factor in this fight. Carmont is a huge dude and I think he will be able to out grapple Lawlor for the win. = Carmont by unanimous decision.

Mark Hominick vs. Pablo Garza: I love Mark Hominick. Watching him put up that valiant effort against Jose Aldo live and in person at UFC 129 earned my respect for life. On paper Hominick is a better fighter. His technique is much better and can handle himself on the ground. But Hominick’s chin is gone. It is completely gone and Garza has enough power to KO Hominick and I think he will. = Garza by TKO in round 2. My Pick for KO of the Night!

Rafael dos Anjos vs. Mark Bocek: I have said this before and I will say it again RDA is the most underrated fighter in the UFC. He is amazing in every aspect of MMA and continues to get better. Bocek’s ground game is superb but his overall game is not good enough to handle RDA. RDA has striking many levels above Bocek’s and his wrestling is better too. I see RDA fighting a very smart fight and totally dominating this. I’m big on Bocek too but he won’t be able to take this one. = RDA by unanimous decision.

Prelims

Patrick Cote vs. Alessio Sakara: This fight should be a blast to watch. Both of these guys always keep it standing and look for the finish. This is an absolute repeat of the Hominick vs. Garza fight. Sakara is a better fighter. Sakara’s standup is world class but the same issue is that his chin is done and Cote definitely has to power to turn his lights off. = Cote by TKO in round 2.

Cyrille Diabate vs. Chad Griggs: This is such a weird fight to me. But Cyrille’s standup is so much fun to watch and Griggs can put on a good show as well. Griggs has an ugly style of fighting and Cyrille has a slick and quick style. We will see who can keep their style going. Can Cyrille keep Griggs at a distance and execute his precision fighting? Or will Griggs make it ugly and land that lucky punch? I see Griggs rocking Cyrille and finishing it on the ground = Griggs by TKO in round 3.

Sam Stout vs. John Makdessi: This should be an awesome fight to watch. Sam Stout definitely should take this with his superior technique and overall game. Makdessi has good standup but in the end Stout should be able to take the decision. I think Stout should take it to the ground because Makdessi’s ground game is not good and Stout’s is good enough to dominant there. = Stout by unanimous decision.

Antonio Carvalho vs. Rodrigo Damm = Carvalho by TKO in round 2. (Interview with Carvalho here)

John Maguire vs. Matt Riddle = Maguire by unanimous decision.

Azamat Gashimov vs. Ivan Menjivar = Menjivar by 3^rd round submission.

Darren Elkins vs. Steven Siler = Siler by 2^nd round submission. My Pick for Submission of the Night!

Sam’s Picks

Main Card

Georges St. Pierre vs. Carlos Condit: Finally, the return of the most dominant champion in the UFC’s welterweight division’s history. I honestly don’t know how I feel about this fight, and I honestly don’t know how it might go. After being gone since April of 2010, GSP will undoubtedly have a bad case of ring rust, especially considering that he is coming off of a horrible knee injury. Even though Condit hasn’t fought in a while either, February of 2012, he will certainly be very loose and ready for war. Of course, the question at the center of this fight is how will GSP’s leg be during the fight after taking leg kicks and going in for takedowns? Condit is certainly the man to test the former as he landed the most leg kicks in UFC history in his last fight with Nick Diaz. When GSP goes in for takedowns, my guess is that he will be much slower than he typically is. He won’t have the same explosive power as he did before, at least for now. Condit also has the agility and elusiveness to avoid the takedowns. Even if GSP can get the takedown, Condit will constantly be attempting submissions from the bottom. Also on the feet, Condit will be the more powerful and technical fighter. You know, as I keep talking about this fight, the more I’m starting to feel as though Condit will win. Sure he’ll most likely lose a round or two but he certainly has a lot more going for him than GSP does going for  him = Condit via unanimous decision. My 3^rd pick for FOTN!

Martin Kampmann vs. Johny Hendricks: This is the fight that I am most excited for. I feel as though this could very well possibly be one of the best fights of the year. Johny Hendricks shocked the world with his 12 second KTFO of Jon Fitch, a fight in which he was a hefty, hefty underdog in. Kampmann on the other hand has been looking both good and bad. He keeps on losing fights, but coming back and finishing his opponents. And I mean like really losing fights. Thiago Alves was easily on his way to a unanimous decision victory when Kampmann pulled out a guillotine with 30 seconds left. Jake Ellenberger had rocked Kampmann just a few seconds into their fight. And I was shocked it wasn’t stopped during Ellenberger’s barrage of ground and pound. I can’t tell if Kampmann has been looking bad or good. Hendricks certainly looked questionable in his bout with Koscheck, a fight in which could have been scored either way. I feel as though this fight will go the same as the last two Kampmann fights: rocked and losing, end up winning = Kampmann via 2^nd round guillotine choke. My pick for SOTN! My 1^st pick for FOTN!

Francis Carmont vs. Tom Lawlor: I am very intrigued by this middleweight scrap. Carmont has a lot of hype surrounding him and has a lot of potential to back it up. But that’s only potential. He has yet to really show me that he is ready for the big test that everyone wants him to fight. I will admit, I do think he will win this fight, but is he truly as good as his nickname, “Limitless”, states. It is very possible. He will definitely make it far in this sport and challenge for the title in the coming years. But how will he do against a guy like Tom Lawlor, who brings in a strong wrestling background? That is why I am so excited to see this fight. I can’t wait to see what Carmont can do against a vet. He needs to keep it standing and utilize his superior size and reach to eventually finish Lawlor = Carmont via 3^rd round submission (choke).

Mark Hominick vs. Pablo Garza: Oh how far Hominick has fallen, but so has Garza. People, including myself, started to feel as though Garza was the next big thing at featherweight. I still personally feel as though he has a lot of potential. Hominick is showing an increasingly weaker chin after each fight and Garza has the ability to capitalize on that. He has great reach, power, and technique; a deadly combination for a guy with a questionable chin. The other problem is that if Hominick is hurt and goes for a takedown, he could fall straight into a triangle and be submitted. I want to go with Hominick, but I just can’t, Garza has too much in his favor = Garza via 3^rd round KO. My pick for KOOTN!

Rafael dos Anjos vs. Mark Bocek: This is easily the hardest fight to predict. These are two of the most underrated fighters in the UFC today. They constantly prove their doubters wrong and the doubters don’t stop. I have always felt as though Dos Anjos could be a future champion: power, world class grappling, brawling fight style, and lots of heart. Look at the fights he’s lost in the UFC, he was beating Stephens until a great comeback for Jeremy, he was beating Clay Guida until Guida started to crush his already broken jaw and a razor thin split decision loss to Gleison Tibau. His only loss where he didn’t look all that great was his second UFC fight with Tyson Griffin where he lost a unanimous decision. Bocek has been in a similar boat. The Canadian has only lost to some of the top lightweights in the world: Frankie Edgar, Jim Miller, and Ben Henderson. There is nothing to be ashamed of in those losses, except Mac Danzig. But in this fight, they are both primarily grapplers, fantastic BJJ. Dos Anjos has the more aggressive submission style while Bocek is very methodical in his movements. But I have a feeling they will cancel out each other’s ground game. And that leaves the standup. Dos Anjos has a drastic advantage in that category and that’s where he will take this fight = Dos Anjos via unanimous decision.

Prelims

Patrick Cote vs. Alessio Sakara: This fight has all the makings for a Fight of the Night. They always love to slug it out and go for the knockout. I really like both these guys which is what makes me hate making this pick. Sakara has been a fan favorite for years, but his chin is quite obviously deteriorating at a rapid pace. Cote has a granite chin. Two guys who swing for the fences plus a guy with a granite chin plus a guy with a weak chin = Cote via 1^st round KO. My 2^nd pick for FOTN!

Cyrille Diabate vs. Chad Griggs: I think this move to 205 pounds was brilliant for Chad Griggs. He was a fun heavyweight but was always very small. Now with this cut down, he will look lean and finally fight someone closer to his size. Diabate has amazing kickboxing but Griggs has capability to turn this fight into an all-out brawl. I envision a takedown for Griggs and lots of ground and pound = Griggs via 3nd round TKO.

Sam Stout vs. John Makdessi: I really don’t like this fight and here is why: I see a lot of promise in Makdessi and want him to be moved at the right pace and Sam Stout has been a stable mate at 155 in the UFC for years now. Makdessi is on a two fight losing streak and Stout is coming off of a win. Stout will easily win this and Makdessi will be released soon after = Stout via unanimous decision. 

Antonio Carvalho vs. Rodrigo Damm = Carvalho via 1^st round KO. (Interview with Carvalho here)

John Maguire vs. Matt Riddle = Maguire via unanimous decision.

Azamat Gashimov vs. Ivan Menjivar = Menjivar via 3^rd round submission.

Darren Elkins vs. Steven Siler = Siler via split decision.