UFC 143: Diaz vs. Condit Predictions

Sam’s Picks

Main Card

Carlos Condit vs. Nick Diaz: What a fight to start the month of love. This is one of the best fights that Joe Silva has ever put together so far in his job at the UFC. These guys are such a perfect match, that I don’t see this fight being finished. They both have a very solid ground game, dangerous standup, very good cardio, and most of all, heart. A tremendous amount of heart. They never give up. Now when they seem equal in talent, we have to look closer within those talents. Condit has the better power while Diaz has the technique and speed without very much power. Both the Diaz’s have very slick Jiu-Jitsu while Condit has the crushing submission skills. This fight is so close but I think that Diaz has the slightest advantage over each category, especially cardio = Diaz by split decision. My pick for FOTN!

Roy Nelson vs. Fabricio Werdum: This one is an easier one for who has the advantage where. Fabrisio Werdum has in the top 5 best Jiu-Jitsu skills in all of MMA. Roy Nelson, on the other hand, is much more well rounded. Nelson has powerful standup and Werdum standup, to say the least, isn’t so good. If Werdum can get it to the ground, I think he’ll win. Be looking for him to be challenging for the title later in 2013 = Werdum by 2nd round submission (arm). My pick for SOTN!

Josh Koscheck vs. Mike Pierce: Believe it or not, I am really not giving Koscheck a chance in this fight. Mike Pierce has the better standup and has been able to utilize his wrestling in MMA better than Koscheck. Not only is Koscheck not as good as people make him out to be, but he has been KO’d before by someone with not very good standup. Pierce has only lost 4 times, two of them being unanimous decision losses to Mark Munoz and Jon Fitch, and one being a split decision loss to Johnny Hendricks. Pierce is a solid competitor and I see him winning this fight = Pierce by unanimous decision.

Renan Barao vs. Scott Jorgenson: This fight is a dream bantamweight matchup. Barao easily dispatched one of the top contenders in Brad Pickett in Pickett’s hometown. Not only that, but he also hasn’t lost since his MMA debut and his record is 27-1. His standup is powerful and his ground game is slick. I love Jorgenson but Barao has all the works to be one of the best in the world = Barao by 2nd round TKO. My pick for FOTN and KOOTN!

Ed Herman vs. Clifford Starks: Starks may be a tremendous athlete with a lot of potential but he hasn’t proved himself to be with some of the best mid-tier fighters like Ed Herman. Herman is scary well rounded and will easily dispatch of Starks = Herman by 1st round submission (choke).

Prelims

Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier = Poirier by 1st round TKO.

Henry Martinez vs. Matt Riddle = Martinez by split decision.

Alex Caceres vs. Edwin Figueroa = Figueroa by 2nd round submission (choke).

Matt Brown vs. Chris Cope = Brown by 1st round TKO.

Dan Stittgen vs. Stephen Thompson = Stittgen by 1st round submission (choke).

Rafael Natal vs. Michael Kuiper = Kuiper by split decision

Dave’s Picks

Main Card

Carlos Condit vs. Nick Diaz: This one is a five round war for the Interim Welterweight Championship of the world! Winner of this is guaranteed a shot at GSP. This fight is an easy pick for possible fight of the year. Both of these guys are very similar. They both are the same height, same reach, pretty much same age, very similar fighting styles and both are absurdly well-rounded. And they both fight without fear. This is going to be amazing! Both have been on fire and destroying high level competition. This fight is so hard to pick because they are very equal in my eyes. However, I think Diaz has just a little tiny bit better boxing when it comes to technique. Plus I just saw that Matt Hughes, my favorite fighter, said the same thing!!= Diaz by split decision. My Pick for Fight of the Night!

Roy Nelson vs. Fabricio Werdum: this fight could either be awesome or boring as heck. Either way it’s pretty important to the heavyweight division. Roy Nelson recently KOed Cro Cop and Werdum is coming over from Strikeforce where he went 3-1 and his only loss was to Overeem. The main factor in this fight is that Nelson has looked really bad in his last 3 fights. He got destroyed by Mir and Dos Santos and before he KOed Cro Cop, Nelson looked pretty bad. I see this fight being equal on the feet and at some point it goes to the ground and there we will see Werdum’s mastery of BJJ = Werdum by submission in round 2. My Pick for Submission of the Night!

Josh Koscheck vs. Mike Pierce: Although Pierce’s wrestling isn’t on the same level as Koscheck’s I still see them deciding to cancel the grappling out and going for a standup battle. Both of them don’t have very technical boxing but they both have decent power; with Koscheck having the proven KO power advantage. Pierce’s best strategy is to make this a dirty boxing match with Kos pressed up against the fence. Kos needs to either take him down and be on top or keep it standing and land bombs from a distance. This one could be closer than most people think but I’m going with the more proven guy = Koscheck by unanimous decision.

Renan Barao vs. Scott Jorgensen: This fight could also be picked as an early favorite to be fight of the year. Both these guys are very well rounded and punch so hard that its insane.  I have met Scott 3 times and every time he was an absolute gentleman and if you add how much I love watching him fight you can be he is one of my favorite fighters. Barao has been looking virtually untouchable. He is undefeated in 27 straight fights! He hasn’t lost since 2005! But overall the most impressive factor was that he destroyed Brad Pickett like it was nothing. This fight could go either way but I feel safer with this one = Barao by unanimous decision.

Ed Herman vs. Clifford Starks: The rest of this card, including this fight, is bizarre. So many injuries changed things up but anyway. This fight should be pretty one sided. Starks hasn’t faced anyone on Herman’s level. As long as Herman stays healthy he should take this. = Herman by submission in the 2^nd round.

Prelims

Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier: Poirier by KO in round 1.

Henry Martinez vs. Matt Riddle: Riddle by split decision.

Alex Caceres vs. Edwin Figueroa: Alex by split deicison.

Matt Brown vs. Chris Cope: Brown by TKO in round 1.

Dan Stittgen vs. Stephen Thompson: Thompson by unanimous decision.

Rafael Natal vs. Michael Kuiper: Natal by unanimous decision.

DeRose's Picks
Main Card
Condit by decision
Roy Nelson by decision
Josh Koscheck by ko
Renan Barao by decision
Ed Herman by decision
Prelims
Dustin Poirtier by ko
Edwin Figueroa by submissiion
Matt Brown by decision
Matthew Riddle by decision
michael kuiper by ko

Enjoy the fights and the Super Bowl!!