The Ultimate Fighter Live Finale Main Card Recap

Michael Chiesa caps off amazing TUF run and story.
Courtesy of Yahoo! Sports

Justin Lawrence vs. John Cofer: This fight had one hell of a finish. Although Cofer was the busier striker, Lawrence was landing the better blows and getting the better of the exchanges. Coming into the 3^rd round, Lawrence was arguably up on the scorecards but he didn’t have to worry about any scorecards, he brutally KO’d the tough Cofer with a brilliantly executed head kick just 19 seconds into the closing frame. Lawrence has an extremely bright future.

Possible matchups for Lawrence: Lawrence needed to desperately work on his fight IQ. This was shown in his fight with Chiesa. He fought a much smarter fight against Cofer and it eventually worked out with his brutal KO in the 3^rd round. He is also a rather undersized lightweight and a move down to featherweight could prove very beneficial for him. Daniel Pineda is coming off a loss and it could definitely be an entertaining fight between two rising prospects.

Max Holloway vs. Pat Schilling: Max Holloway is the new kid everyone needs to keep their eye on. He has some of the best technical striking in the division. Not even Jose Aldo mixes it around with body shots. Holloway peppered Schilling for three dominant rounds mixing in beautiful body shots, brutal uppercuts, and even went for the famous off the cage “showtime” kick. I was reading around on some forums and people were saying that Schilling is going to absolutely destroy Holloway. That wasn’t exactly the case. The main criticism that I have for Holloway is that he needs to work on his finishing ability, but he was simply playing it smart. Schilling had a much better ground game and he didn’t want to risk it. Props to Schilling though for a tremendous amount of heart, but heart doesn’t win you a fight.

Possible matchups for Holloway: Holloway showed to me that he shall be a title contender in the coming years. With the technical standup that brutalized Schillings face and body, to his great takedown defense. He defended all Schilling’s takedown attempts and in a few, I really thought that Schilling would get the takedown but Holloway showed much improved takedown defense, which he promised and delivered. Schilling has absolutely no name value, so if Holloway really wants to make a statement at featherweight, he should fight the winner of Cub Swanson vs. Ross Pearson. It very well could be too much too fast but I can guarantee you that Holloway will hold his own in either of those fights.

Charles Oliveira vs. Jonathon Brookins: Oliveira truly emerged as a contender for the featherweight belt against Brookins. Oliveira’s punches were picture perfect and then he ended up cinching a devastating modified guillotine choke that was also part D’arce choke for the finish mid way into round 2.

Possible matchups for Oliveira: With the featherweight division looking rather thin as of late, Oliveira has launched himself up into the top contenders. Dennis Siver himself has also launched himself into title contention. That fight would be absolutely awesome along with it being a real launch for both goes at 145.

Possible matchups for Brookins: Let’s be honest with ourselves, Brookins is a very talented guy but he will never rise above anything passed gatekeeper status. But before he has to resume his job as gatekeeper, he needs a fight that will put him back there. A fight with the lone Chinese fighter, Tiequan Zhang would be both a fight that would get him back there, and a rather easy fight.

Mike Chiesa vs. Al Iaquinta: After Chiesa’s fight with Larsen, I wrote him off as guy who would prove tough but not even come close to winning the show. I also chose the guy he was facing to win every time, except for Larsen. But boy, was he on a mission. After hearing about the death of his father, he made it the only goal in his mind that he was going to win this in dedication to his father. Iaquinta is a tough dude but when you are facing a guy like Chiesa, you aren’t going to win. This show was Chiesa’s to win. Not much happened in the standup but once Chiesa got a hold of him, he took his back and finished the fight. The best storybook ending to any TUF season ever.

Possible matchups for Chiesa: Once you win The Ultimate Fighter, you will be instantly thrown into the wolves. You will be given a fighter that has name value and has a chance to beat you. But isn’t that the way with all UFC fights? A fight with Mac Danzig would be a great test for Chiesa.

Possible matchups for Iaquinta: Iaquinta has some solid standup but desperately needs to work on his submission defense. Tony Ferguson is coming off of a loss against another TUF runner up and that would be a great standup fight.

Jake Ellenberger vs. Martin Kampmann: Martin Kampmann is turning into the comeback kid of the UFC. After being blitzed in the opening stages of the fight and the second round, Kampmann pulled off the upset and finished Ellenberger with a barrage of knees that dropped him. Ellenberger, despite this loss, is still one of the top guys in the division and Kampmann is easily one of the most entertaining fighters in the UFC.

Possible matchups for Kampmann: The only fight that would truly make sense right now would be a title eliminator fight with Johny Hendricks, and Kampmann said it himself, a fight with him and Hendricks would be an entertaining scrap.

Possible matchups for Ellenberger: Well, as of today, Jon Fitch has had to pull out of his fight with Aaron Simpson due to injury. Ellenberger would be the perfect guy to replace Fitch. This is, of course, depending on the fact that he doesn’t have a concussion following his TKO loss.

For the Prelim Recap Click Here

The Ultimate Fighter Live Finale Predictions

Dave’s Picks

First off I would like to inform you all that my beautiful wife predicted every single fight correctly except one this entire season of TUF. No, she does not help me with my predictions…but maybe she should..

Main Card

Jake Ellenberger vs. Martin Kampmann: What a great fight. I love watching these guys but in my opinion Ellenberger is on another level at this point. Kampmann is a dangerous guy who can beat anyone if they get careless but Jakes is just a monster. Kampmann is almost impossible to finish but I think Jake needs to do that early on or he may be in trouble. Jake has shown that his gas tank can run dry due to his insane pace he keeps up and this one is a 5 rounder. If I was Jake I would intelligently try and finish this quick and I believe he can. I see Jake putting on pressure, getting a knockdown and then finishing Kampmann with crazy ground and pound. = Ellenberger by TKO in round 2. My Pick for KO of the Night!

Mike Chiesa vs. Al Iaquinta: Anything could happen in this fight but knowing that Al trains with Matt Serra makes me put some faith in him. The other thing that gives me great confidence in picking Al is that when I interviewed Urijah (Click here for that interview) he said he thought Al would win. Urijah coached both of these guys the entire time and he is choosing Al. I think Al has much better standup and better wrestling but Chiesa has a knack for pulling off crazy stuff. But I feel pretty safe picking Al. = Al by unanimous decision.

Max Holloway vs. Pat Schilling: Max Holloway is a little monster. The kid is only 20 and has crazy standup skills. Go watch his youtube highlight video. I really like this kid a lot. We interviewed him recently (Click here for that interview) and you can tell he is just a great kid loving his time in the big leagues. But Schilling is no joke as well. This fight could be closer than I am expecting but I see Holloway dominating. = Holloway by TKO in round 1.

Jonathan Brookins vs. Charles Oliveira: I can’t wait for this one. This will be a very fun fight. Brookins is coming off the greatest win of his career by absolutely destroying Vagner Rocha and Oliveira is coming off a successful featherweight debut. If you were to ask me about this fight a year ago I would have likely picked Oliveira by a close decision but after their last couple fights I have to go with Brookins. However, this fight will be very close and expect some fireworks on the feet and on the ground. = Brookins by split decision. My Pick for Fight of the Night!

Prelims

Justin Lawrence vs. John Cofer = Lawrence by unanimous decision.
Myles Jury vs. Chris Saunders = Jury by split decision.

Daron Cruickshank vs. Chris Tickle = Cruickshank by unanimous decision.
Cristiano Marcello vs. Sam Sicilia = Marcello by 3rd round submission. My Pick for Submission of the Night!
John Albert vs. Erik Perez = Albert by unanimous decision.
Jeremy Larsen vs. Joe Proctor = Proctor by unanimous decision.

Sam's Picks

Main Card

Jake Ellenberger vs. Martin Kampmann: In a welterweight clash that will undoubtedly be an amazing fight, the winner is next in line for a title shot. At least, that’s how I feel about it. Apparently, Johny Hendricks is the next one to receive a title shot after Condit but I disagree. Hendricks is 4-1 in his last 5: decision loss to Story (not impressive), TKO victory over TJ Waldburger (pretty impressive), squeaked by Mike Pierce (not impressive), KO’d Jon Fitch in 12 seconds (extremely impressive), and squeaked by Josh Koscheck (not impressive). I don’t see how that deserves a title shot. Now what Ellenberger and Kampmann have done is much more impressive and worthy of a title shot. Kampmann is 3-2 (with the two being very controversial decision losses) and Ellenberger 6-1 in the UFC with the loss also being a controversial decision loss. But hey, lets get back to the fight. Between these two, the most impressive as of late is by far Ellenberger. A 50 second KO of Jake Shields, a dominating decision win of Diego Sanchez (besides the 3rd round), and another KO of a game Sean Pierson. Kampmann on the other hand, was being dominated by Thiago Alves until Alves made a horrible mistake and Kampmann capitalized on it. Personally, I think that the deciding factor will be Ellenberger’s power and momentum in the UFC. But if he doesn’t finish, Kampmann will win by unanimous decision = Ellenberger by 2nd round TKO. My pick for KOOTN and 1st for FOTN!

Mike Chiesa vs. Al Iaquinta: Iaquinta has rolled along the competition in TUF despite his two close fights between Jury and Pichel, he never really took damage in those fights. Chiesa on the other hand, has taken lots of damage in his last fights. Almost being finished by Lawrence with a body shot and submitted by Vick. He has a lot of heart, but simply not the technique that Iaquinta holds. Look for Chiesa to pull off the upset and comeback if he isn’t finished in the first. I will be cheering for him = Iaquinta by 1st round TKO.

Max Holloway vs. Pat Schilling: I see this fight being a one sided beatdown handed by Max Holloway, and no I’m not just saying that because we got an interview with him, its because I thought that the second I saw this fight announced (which was before the interview). Schilling was destroyed by future contender in Daniel Pineda, and he looking terrible and not UFC caliber. Holloway, on the other hand, despite losing in the first round really impressed me in his debut. He was winning the standup against one of the top contenders in Dustin Poirier before being finished with a bizarre mounted triangle/armbar = Holloway by 2nd round TKO.

Jonathan Brookins vs. Charles Oliveira: This fight is probably the hardest one to pick on the whole card. These guys are both young phenoms who are undoubtedly going to fight for the title in the future. I’m going with Brookins on this on this one because he has been more impressive, knocking out the always dangerous Vagner Rocha brutally in one minute and barely losing to (now) title contender Erik Koch = Brookins by split decision

Prelims
Justin Lawrence vs. John Cofer = Lawrence by unanimous decision. My 2nd pick for FOTN!
Myles Jury vs. Chris Saunders = Jury by split decision. My 3rd pick for FOTN!
Daron Cruickshank vs. Chris Tickle = Cruickshank by 1st round TKO
Cristiano Marcello vs. Sam Sicilia = Marcello by 2nd round submission (choke). My pick for SOTN!
John Albert vs. Erik Perez = Albert by unanimous decision
Jeremy Larsen vs. Joe Proctor = Proctor by split decision

RIP Mr. Chiesa.
 

UFC on Fuel 1: Ellenberger vs. Sanchez Predictions

Sam’s Picks

Main Card

Jake Ellenberger vs. Diego Sanchez: Ellenberger is a beast. Sanchez is a beast. This makes for an awesome fight, both these guys love to slug it out and go for the KO. Ellenberger wants to get a second shot at Condit so bad that I think that just adds to fire along with this taking place in his hometown of Omaha. Ever since Sanchez has moved back up to welterweight, he has looked pretty solid after his fight with John Hathaway. I believe that Ellenberger is going to have to finish it to win, he doesn’t have the best cardio, so I think it will be close up until Ellenberger finishes it = Ellenberger by 2nd round TKO. My pick for FOTN!

Stefan Struve vs. Dave Herman: “Pee Wee” versus the “Skyscraper”. Both of these guys have a lot of potential to be future title challengers but Struve has proven to not have the best chin. Herman has very unorthodox but also very effective standup. Struve has the clear grappling advantage and Herman with the standup, I think I have to go with the standup. It’s going to be exciting but Herman is going to finish this fight = Herman by 1st round TKO. My pick for KOOTN!

Aaron Simpson vs. Ronny Markes: This fight is very hard to pick. They are very equal but Simpson has the better wrestling credentials but Markes is extremely powerful. I’m going to go with the underdog in this fight because he dominated a guy who is known to be extremely powerful = Markes by split decision.

Philip de Fries vs. Stipe Miocic: Miocic is a huge prospect that has all the credentials to be a future title challenger. Fries, is much of the same. This fight is another hard to call because they both have unlimited potential but I think that Miocic will be able to tap into his earlier, but look out for these guys to become big names in the next two years = Miocic by split decision.

T.J. Dillashaw vs. Walel Watson: Both of these guys have good standup but also very different. TJ is a boxer who favors the uppercut while Watson is a muay thai specialist that favors the clinch and leg kicks. For bantamweight, Watson is oddly large with a huge reach advantage over most of the 135ers. I think that he will be able to use his reach and leg kicks to cruise towards a unanimous decision victory = Watson by unanimous decision.

Ivan Menjivar vs. John Albert: This is an interesting fight. A hardened veteran versus a pretty huge prospect. I think that Menjivar is just a little too fast and seasoned to lose to the much larger Albert = Menjivar by 3rd round submission. My pick for SOTN! 

Prelims

Jonathan Brookins vs. Vagner Rocha = Brookins by split decision.
Buddy Roberts vs. Sean Loeffler = Loeffler by unanimous decision.
Anton Kuivanen vs. Justin Salas = Kuivanen by split decision.
Bernardo Magalhaes vs. Tim Means = Magalhaes by 2nd round submission.

Dave’s Picks

Main Card

Jake Ellenberger vs. Diego Sanzhez: This will be such a great fight. Both of these guys are face paced monsters. However, I think Jake is the perfect person to handle Diego. In fact I think Jake will take this rather easily. Jake will be much stronger and have more punching power plus I think he will have the wrestling advantage. I see Jake slamming Diego either against the cage on the mat and punching and grinding out an easy win. = Jake by unanimous decision. My Pick for Fight of the Night!

Dave Herman vs. Stefan Struve: Sam and the betting line are picking Herman but I am not. I actually talked to Struve myself about this fight. He said that during his UFC career he hasn’t always fought super smart but this time he will. Just like he did against Barry. He got it to the mat and finished it. I see a similar result. I see Struve getting it to the ground somehow and submitting Herman. Either way this fight will most likely not  go the distance. = Struve by submission in round 2. My Pick for Submission of the Night!

Ronny Markes vs. Aaron Simpson: I’m excited for this fight. I think this will be Ronny’s coming out party. I see Aaron Simpson getting out muscled and punished. I like Simpson but this fight will prove he is a gate keeper and Ronny has a huge future. = Ronny by unanimous decision.

Philip de Fries vs. Stipe Miocic: I think both these guys have great futures but Miocic will take this one in devastating fashion. I see Fries trying to go for a sloppy takedown and getting his head kicked off. Fries only chance is to get this to the ground ASAP or he will get KOed. = Stipe Miocic by TKO in round 1. My Pick for KO of the Night!

Prelims

T.J. Dillashaw vs. Walel Watson: Dillashaw by split decision.

Jonathan Brookins vs. Vagner Rocha: Brookins by unanimous decision.

John Albert vs. Ivan Menjivar: Ivan by submission in round 2.

Bernardo Magalhaes vs. Tim Means: Bernardo by split decision.

Sean Loeffler vs. Buddy Roberts: Roberts by split decision.

Anton Kuivanen vs. Justin Salas: Anton by split decision.

Fight Night 25: Shields vs. Ellenberger

Dave’s Picks

Main Card

Jake Shields vs. Jake Ellenberger: This fight will end up on the ground and there are some things we have to consider. The first is that Shields is one of the best BJJ players in the welterweight division. The second is that Shields is much bigger than Ellenberger, so if Shields gets top position on the ground he could do some real damage. But with Ellenberger the two things are that he has better striking and he couldn’t get submitted by Rocha when he was on his back which is awesome. If Shields loses he will be 1-2 with the one win being a close split decision which he did not look good in. = Shields by split decision.

Court McGee vs. Dongi Yang: Probably the worst Co-Main event in Zuffa history. But Yang is smaller and lost to an even smaller Chris Camozzi. Court has looked okay and should take this = Court by submission in round 2.

Jonathan Brookins vs. Erik Koch: I like Brookins as a person and he is fun to watch fight but Koch is just a much better fighter. Look for Koch to be a title contender very soon. = Koch by TKO in the 2^nd round. My Pick for Fight of the Night!

Alan Belcher vs. Jason MacDonald: I am so happy Belcher is healthy again. For those who were unaware Belcher has major problems with detached retinas which is a fighters ultimate nightmare because most of the time they don’t heal enough for doctors to ever let you fight again. Well Belcher is so much better on the feet that this should end in a flurry. = Belcher by TKO in round 3. My Pick for KO of the Night!

Prelims

Cody McKenzie vs. Vagner Rocha: Rocha by submission in round 2.

Evan Dunham vs. Shamar Bailey: Dunham by submission in round 1. My Pick for Submission of the Night!

Matt Riddle vs. Lance Benoist: Riddle by split decision.

Ken Stone vs. Donny Walker: Stone by split decision.

Clay Harvison vs. Seth Baczynski: Seth by TKO in round 3.

Mike Stumpf vs. T.J. Waldburger: T.J. by unanimous decision.

Mike Lullo vs. Robert Peralta: Peralate by unanimous decision.

Justin Edwards vs. Jorge Lopez: Lopez by TKO round 1.

Sam’s Picks

Main Card
Jake Shields vs. Jake Ellenberger: This is an interesting fight. I really like both guys and Ellenberger had a really bright future ahead of him the UFC. This is a huge step ahead for Ellenberger, coming off a KO win over Sean Pierson at 129. Shields coming off a close loss to GSP at the same card, this is a bit of a step back for the world class grappler. If Ellenberger can utilize his wrestling skills to keep it on the feet, he could win this fight, but Shield’s ground is so amazing, if he gets it to the ground, game over= Shields by 3rd round submission.

Court McGee vs. Dongi Yang: This fight is on the main card? Wait, this fight is the co-main event? Yes, this fight is the co-main event of a UFC card. Court McGee isn’t even that big of a draw and very few people even know who Dongi Yang is. Well, in case you don’t know who Yang is, he is a Korean TKO artist and has finished all of his fights, 9 of them being TKOs. He would be a big draw… if he has beaten any big names. The biggest name he has beaten is Rob Kimmons, who kind of sucks. Court McGee showed a really weak chin with almost getting KO’d by Ryan Jensen, who is a joke. I seriously couldn’t care less about this fight= Yang by 2nd round TKO.

Jonathon Brookins vs. Erik Koch: This is an awesome fight, this is the one I am most excited for. This is going to show who is ready for the big show, who is ready to stand with the best in the world. Erik “New Breed” Koch’s nickname is perfect, he is the future of this sport and could end up being the champ at 145. Brookins on the other hand is a very calm and collected, very skilled fighter who has only lost three times, one of them coming at the hands of top 5 P4P fighter, Jose Aldo, a fight he was doing very well in. Brookins’ chin is pretty bad, he was destroyed in the first round against Michael Johnson. This is a hard fight to pick but I belive both these guys have very bright futures= Koch by 2nd round TKO

Alan Belcher vs. Jason MacDonald: I’m really happy to see Belcher back. He was getting close to a title shot when he tore one of his retinas, nearly ending his career. MacDonald says he wants to pull a “Lytle” in retiring with win tonight. I see this fight going super one-sided with Belcher just manhandling Macdonald but we’ll see how he does after such a long layoff= Belcher by unanimous decision.

Prelims

Cody McKenzie vs. Vagner Rocha= Rocha by 2nd round submission.
Shamar Bailey vs. Evan Dunham(?)= Dunham by unanimous decision.
Lance Benoist vs. Matthew Riddle= Riddle by unanimous decision.
Ken Stone vs. Donny Walker= Stone by split decision.
Seth Baczynski vs. Clay Harvison= Seth by unanimous decision.
Mike Stumpf vs. T.J. Waldburger= Stumpf by 2nd round submission (RNC).
Mike Lullo vs. Robert Peralta= Peralta by split decision.
Justin Edwards vs. Jorge Lopez= Lopez by 1st round TKO.