UFC 154: St. Pierre vs. Condit Predictions

Dave’s Picks

Main Card

Georges St. Pierre vs. Carlos Condit: Such a fun fight! I am a huge GSP fan and I am so happy he has recovered from that horrific injury. I am very nervous he will not be the same fighter he was before but he did everything a human can possibly do to recover from a knee injury. Carlos Condit has finally put it altogether and has reached his peak. He is a smart, calculated and intense fighter who is very well rounded. But here is the big issue for me. Condit’s takedown defense has always been his weakest point in his game. GSP arguably has the best double leg takedown in MMA. I think Condit has the best chance to beat GSP in over 5 years but I think the safest bet is GSP smothering Condit and staying out of Condit’s deadly submission game. I like both of these guys but I would hate to see GSP comeback just to lose and I have a fear he might retire if he does. I’ll be watching this one while covering my eyes with my hands. = GSP by unanimous decision. My Pick for Fight of the Night!

Martin Kampmann vs. Johny Hendricks: This fight is the hardest for me to pick. I have picked against Kampmann in his last two fights and in both of those fights Kampmann was getting destroyed and then won with barely anytime on the clock. Those were two crazy fights. I feel like picking against Kampmann again but with the obvious fear the same will happen. I have no idea what to do. Hendricks should be able to destroy Kampmann in the wrestling department but sometimes can be stubborn because he wants the KO so badly. I just see this fight being a grinding win for Hendricks by out wrestling the dangerous Kampmann. But my warning to you all is do not stop watching this fight because Kampmann is the king of comebacks. = Hendricks by unanimous decision.

Francis Carmont vs. Tom Lawlor: I have been very impressed with Carmont. He looked great in his last fight against Vemola. Lawlor looked good in his last fight as well. However, Lawlor has always relied on his size and strength advantage but I think that will not be a factor in this fight. Carmont is a huge dude and I think he will be able to out grapple Lawlor for the win. = Carmont by unanimous decision.

Mark Hominick vs. Pablo Garza: I love Mark Hominick. Watching him put up that valiant effort against Jose Aldo live and in person at UFC 129 earned my respect for life. On paper Hominick is a better fighter. His technique is much better and can handle himself on the ground. But Hominick’s chin is gone. It is completely gone and Garza has enough power to KO Hominick and I think he will. = Garza by TKO in round 2. My Pick for KO of the Night!

Rafael dos Anjos vs. Mark Bocek: I have said this before and I will say it again RDA is the most underrated fighter in the UFC. He is amazing in every aspect of MMA and continues to get better. Bocek’s ground game is superb but his overall game is not good enough to handle RDA. RDA has striking many levels above Bocek’s and his wrestling is better too. I see RDA fighting a very smart fight and totally dominating this. I’m big on Bocek too but he won’t be able to take this one. = RDA by unanimous decision.

Prelims

Patrick Cote vs. Alessio Sakara: This fight should be a blast to watch. Both of these guys always keep it standing and look for the finish. This is an absolute repeat of the Hominick vs. Garza fight. Sakara is a better fighter. Sakara’s standup is world class but the same issue is that his chin is done and Cote definitely has to power to turn his lights off. = Cote by TKO in round 2.

Cyrille Diabate vs. Chad Griggs: This is such a weird fight to me. But Cyrille’s standup is so much fun to watch and Griggs can put on a good show as well. Griggs has an ugly style of fighting and Cyrille has a slick and quick style. We will see who can keep their style going. Can Cyrille keep Griggs at a distance and execute his precision fighting? Or will Griggs make it ugly and land that lucky punch? I see Griggs rocking Cyrille and finishing it on the ground = Griggs by TKO in round 3.

Sam Stout vs. John Makdessi: This should be an awesome fight to watch. Sam Stout definitely should take this with his superior technique and overall game. Makdessi has good standup but in the end Stout should be able to take the decision. I think Stout should take it to the ground because Makdessi’s ground game is not good and Stout’s is good enough to dominant there. = Stout by unanimous decision.

Antonio Carvalho vs. Rodrigo Damm = Carvalho by TKO in round 2. (Interview with Carvalho here)

John Maguire vs. Matt Riddle = Maguire by unanimous decision.

Azamat Gashimov vs. Ivan Menjivar = Menjivar by 3^rd round submission.

Darren Elkins vs. Steven Siler = Siler by 2^nd round submission. My Pick for Submission of the Night!

Sam’s Picks

Main Card

Georges St. Pierre vs. Carlos Condit: Finally, the return of the most dominant champion in the UFC’s welterweight division’s history. I honestly don’t know how I feel about this fight, and I honestly don’t know how it might go. After being gone since April of 2010, GSP will undoubtedly have a bad case of ring rust, especially considering that he is coming off of a horrible knee injury. Even though Condit hasn’t fought in a while either, February of 2012, he will certainly be very loose and ready for war. Of course, the question at the center of this fight is how will GSP’s leg be during the fight after taking leg kicks and going in for takedowns? Condit is certainly the man to test the former as he landed the most leg kicks in UFC history in his last fight with Nick Diaz. When GSP goes in for takedowns, my guess is that he will be much slower than he typically is. He won’t have the same explosive power as he did before, at least for now. Condit also has the agility and elusiveness to avoid the takedowns. Even if GSP can get the takedown, Condit will constantly be attempting submissions from the bottom. Also on the feet, Condit will be the more powerful and technical fighter. You know, as I keep talking about this fight, the more I’m starting to feel as though Condit will win. Sure he’ll most likely lose a round or two but he certainly has a lot more going for him than GSP does going for  him = Condit via unanimous decision. My 3^rd pick for FOTN!

Martin Kampmann vs. Johny Hendricks: This is the fight that I am most excited for. I feel as though this could very well possibly be one of the best fights of the year. Johny Hendricks shocked the world with his 12 second KTFO of Jon Fitch, a fight in which he was a hefty, hefty underdog in. Kampmann on the other hand has been looking both good and bad. He keeps on losing fights, but coming back and finishing his opponents. And I mean like really losing fights. Thiago Alves was easily on his way to a unanimous decision victory when Kampmann pulled out a guillotine with 30 seconds left. Jake Ellenberger had rocked Kampmann just a few seconds into their fight. And I was shocked it wasn’t stopped during Ellenberger’s barrage of ground and pound. I can’t tell if Kampmann has been looking bad or good. Hendricks certainly looked questionable in his bout with Koscheck, a fight in which could have been scored either way. I feel as though this fight will go the same as the last two Kampmann fights: rocked and losing, end up winning = Kampmann via 2^nd round guillotine choke. My pick for SOTN! My 1^st pick for FOTN!

Francis Carmont vs. Tom Lawlor: I am very intrigued by this middleweight scrap. Carmont has a lot of hype surrounding him and has a lot of potential to back it up. But that’s only potential. He has yet to really show me that he is ready for the big test that everyone wants him to fight. I will admit, I do think he will win this fight, but is he truly as good as his nickname, “Limitless”, states. It is very possible. He will definitely make it far in this sport and challenge for the title in the coming years. But how will he do against a guy like Tom Lawlor, who brings in a strong wrestling background? That is why I am so excited to see this fight. I can’t wait to see what Carmont can do against a vet. He needs to keep it standing and utilize his superior size and reach to eventually finish Lawlor = Carmont via 3^rd round submission (choke).

Mark Hominick vs. Pablo Garza: Oh how far Hominick has fallen, but so has Garza. People, including myself, started to feel as though Garza was the next big thing at featherweight. I still personally feel as though he has a lot of potential. Hominick is showing an increasingly weaker chin after each fight and Garza has the ability to capitalize on that. He has great reach, power, and technique; a deadly combination for a guy with a questionable chin. The other problem is that if Hominick is hurt and goes for a takedown, he could fall straight into a triangle and be submitted. I want to go with Hominick, but I just can’t, Garza has too much in his favor = Garza via 3^rd round KO. My pick for KOOTN!

Rafael dos Anjos vs. Mark Bocek: This is easily the hardest fight to predict. These are two of the most underrated fighters in the UFC today. They constantly prove their doubters wrong and the doubters don’t stop. I have always felt as though Dos Anjos could be a future champion: power, world class grappling, brawling fight style, and lots of heart. Look at the fights he’s lost in the UFC, he was beating Stephens until a great comeback for Jeremy, he was beating Clay Guida until Guida started to crush his already broken jaw and a razor thin split decision loss to Gleison Tibau. His only loss where he didn’t look all that great was his second UFC fight with Tyson Griffin where he lost a unanimous decision. Bocek has been in a similar boat. The Canadian has only lost to some of the top lightweights in the world: Frankie Edgar, Jim Miller, and Ben Henderson. There is nothing to be ashamed of in those losses, except Mac Danzig. But in this fight, they are both primarily grapplers, fantastic BJJ. Dos Anjos has the more aggressive submission style while Bocek is very methodical in his movements. But I have a feeling they will cancel out each other’s ground game. And that leaves the standup. Dos Anjos has a drastic advantage in that category and that’s where he will take this fight = Dos Anjos via unanimous decision.

Prelims

Patrick Cote vs. Alessio Sakara: This fight has all the makings for a Fight of the Night. They always love to slug it out and go for the knockout. I really like both these guys which is what makes me hate making this pick. Sakara has been a fan favorite for years, but his chin is quite obviously deteriorating at a rapid pace. Cote has a granite chin. Two guys who swing for the fences plus a guy with a granite chin plus a guy with a weak chin = Cote via 1^st round KO. My 2^nd pick for FOTN!

Cyrille Diabate vs. Chad Griggs: I think this move to 205 pounds was brilliant for Chad Griggs. He was a fun heavyweight but was always very small. Now with this cut down, he will look lean and finally fight someone closer to his size. Diabate has amazing kickboxing but Griggs has capability to turn this fight into an all-out brawl. I envision a takedown for Griggs and lots of ground and pound = Griggs via 3nd round TKO.

Sam Stout vs. John Makdessi: I really don’t like this fight and here is why: I see a lot of promise in Makdessi and want him to be moved at the right pace and Sam Stout has been a stable mate at 155 in the UFC for years now. Makdessi is on a two fight losing streak and Stout is coming off of a win. Stout will easily win this and Makdessi will be released soon after = Stout via unanimous decision. 

Antonio Carvalho vs. Rodrigo Damm = Carvalho via 1^st round KO. (Interview with Carvalho here)

John Maguire vs. Matt Riddle = Maguire via unanimous decision.

Azamat Gashimov vs. Ivan Menjivar = Menjivar via 3^rd round submission.

Darren Elkins vs. Steven Siler = Siler via split decision.

Don't Look Past These Guys: UFC Dark Horses

As the UFC continues to add to their already dense roster, there are a lot of mid-tier fighters that are being overlooked and not being given the respect they deserve. Every division has several dark horse title contenders and several constant underdogs.

These guys are starting to prove to us that they aren’t who we really think they are, but actually a force to be reckoned with. I have personally chosen my dark horse title contenders in who I believe will be challenging for the title as everyone else overlooks them.

Photo via MMAJunkie.com

Heavyweight: Stefan Struve -  “Skyscraper” is really starting to find his grove in the MMA world. After his KO loss to Travis Browne at UFC 130, people started to write him off as a wasted talent.  People knew he had an immense amount of potential, but we never saw it come into fruition, until now. 

After his loss to Browne, he decided he is now going to fight smart. Fight IQ has been his biggest opponent since his UFC debut against Junior dos Santos. With extremely slick BJJ and technical striking, Struve has what it takes to be a future champion, but his chin has been saying otherwise.

Now riding a 3 fight win streak against Pat Barry, Dave Herman, and Lavar Johnson, he’s looking for a rematch with the champ but he’ll have to get through top heavyweight prospect in Stipe Miocic.

Photo via MMAWeekly.com

Light Heavyweight: James Te Huna – This New Zealand born knockout artist has been making statement after statement in the UFC. With a record of 4-1 under the UFC banner, with his only loss to title contender Alexander Gustafsson, he is riding a 3 fight win streak with wins over Ricardo Romero, Aaron Rosa, and a fight of the year candidate against Joey Beltran, including a TKO win over Igor Pokrajac in his UFC debut.

Not a lot of people are talking about Te Huna and the title picture, but that time is certainly coming sooner, rather than later.

With immense KO power in his hands that also hold technical prowess, Te Huna may be the next guy to beat at 205, and I see a top-10 opponent in his next fight.

Photo via MMAJunkie.com

Middleweight: Francis Carmont – Training out of a place like Tristar gym can get you immediate attention, especially when you’re an up and comer, but there is one man that is starting to hog the spotlight from the other up and comers. His name is Francis “Limitless” Carmont and this 30-year-old Frenchman is really starting to turn some heads, and showing that his nickname is rather apt.

Although his standup is not technically sound, but rather powerful, his ground game is his bread and butter. With 19 professional wins with 10 by submission, he is the type of fighter where you want to avoid his ground game.

After coming off a spectacular submission win over Karlos Vemola, who is a Czech national wrestling champion, Carmont is looking to take a step up in competition against the charismatic, Tom Lawlor. If he passes, he could be looking at a top-15 or even top-10 opponent.

Photo via MMA Sun

 Welterweight: John Hathaway – At only 25 years old, Hathaway has a ton of time to improve his all around game, which is quite scary considering he has already beaten Diego Sanchez (who was coming off of a title shot), Rick Story, and Paul Taylor. His only loss is to Mike Pyle, who absolutely dominated the fight, but that is simply a learning experience for the young Hathaway.

Following his two lackluster bouts with Pyle and Kris McCray, Hathaway made a strong comeback against submission specialist, Pascal Krauss as UFC on Fox 3.

This young man has an insane amount of potential and it has yet to be tapped into, perhaps we will see it against John Maguire on September 29^th.

Photo via MMAJunkie.com

Lightweight: Tim Means – This one might come as a surprise to many. Tim Means has only had two fights in the UFC and against relative unknowns in Justin Salas and Bernardo Magalhaes. But, don’t be mistaken, Tim Means is immensely talented. His standup is insanely accurate and his takedown defense is great. His finishing ability is also fantastic as he has 13 (T)KO, 3 submission, and only 2 decision wins. His crazy reach and height can’t hurt either and Tim Means is continuing to make a name.

Although his next fight is against UFC debutant, and relative unknown, Abel Trujillo, Tim Means deserves recognition and with a win over Trujillo, he may finally receive some.

Photo via MMAJunkie.com

Featherweight: Antonio Carvalho – Going into UFC 149, Carvalho was expected to be rather easily disposed of by Daniel Pineda. It didn’t exactly go that way. Carvalho blitzed Pineda and knocked him out with a beautiful head kick followed by a barrage of punches in only 71 seconds. Although this only makes him 1-1 in the UFC, this win showed that he clearly had a bad case of the UFC jitters heading into his fight with Felipe Arantes.For a guy who is known for his ground game, Carvalho’s standup looked pretty fantastic against Pineda. 

Believe it or not, Carvalho actually has a win over Hatsu Hioki back in 2007. Even though it was only a split decision, a win is a win and that win is huge. If Antonio Carvalho can continue to look as good as he did against Pineda, we are looking at a potential champion at 145.

Photo via MMAWeekly.com

Bantamweight: Alex Caceres – Alex Caceres, or otherwise known as Bruce Leeroy, has looked great since his drop down to 135. After losing his first two bouts to Mackens Semerzier and Jimy Hettes in the UFC, he decided it was time for another drop. And it’s done wonders.

He won his bantamweight debut against former WEC featherweight champion in Cole Escovedo, and he won dominantly. He ended up losing his next fight to Edwin Figueroa, but it was highly controversial and it was a bizarre fight overall. He ended up easily submitting former WEC star, Damacio Page, in the second round with a triangle choke. With his extremely well rounded MMA game, Alex Caceres is one of the most underrated fighters in the UFC today.

Photo via MMAJunkie.com

Flyweight: Chris Cariaso – Cariaso is another one of those fighters that simply hasn’t received enough praise. The guy is a very good fighter. His ground game is strong and his standup is underrated. With wins over Takeya Mizugaki, Vaughan Lee, Will Campuzano, Josh Ferguson, and a very close fight with a top-5 bantamweight in Michael McDonald, Cariaso is for real.

I think his fight with McDonald truly speaks to his skill. That fight was extremely close throughout the fight and Cariaso had a huge disadvantage in the size category, giving up 5 inches in height. He stayed in there with McDonald and actually won some of the standup.

After his successful 125 pound debut against Josh Ferguson, Cariaso is just one win away from a title shot. He has what it takes to really give any 125er a run for their money.

UFC on Fuel TV 4 Main Card Recap

Chris Weidman finishing the fight.
Photo by The Fight Nation

Overall, this was a very good night of fights.  We got to see a potential dethroner of Anderson Silva’s long reign show why he is being considered the next big thing in MMA with his win. We also got to see a potential Fight of the Year and several other rising prospects show that they are ready for a step up in competition. Only two fights were not entertaining, that’s a rarity that there were only two. Anyway, into the recap!

Rafael dos Anjos vs. Anthony Njokuani: Dos Anjos continues to show why he should be such a feared fighter. He beat a kick boxer at his own game and dominated the ground game with wrestling and BJJ. Dos Anjos ended up dominating every round, even though one of the judges gave one to Njokuani.

Possible matchups for dos Anjos: The guy deserves a top-10 opponent. I thought that he beat Tibau and he was winning against Clay Guida before his jaw broke and he had to tap out when Guida was putting pressure on it. Donald Cerrone looked fantastic in his last fight with Jeremy Stephens. Dos Anjos and Cerrone would put on one hell of a brawl. Dos Anjos and him are similar but Cerrone has the better technical and fast standup while dos Anjos is wild but powerful with his.

Possible matchups for Njokuani: Paul Taylor and Njokuani were supposed to fight twice before, including on this card. That fight would be spectacular so lets try again, third times the charm.

Vaughan Lee vs. TJ Dillashaw: Lee started off very good in the standup, getting the better of the exchanges and landing some solid kicks to the body. He started to get a little wild and missed a head kick, which was caught and he was instantly taken down. His back was taken and the fight was over. First round submission for Team Alpha Male.

Possible matchups for Dillashaw: TJ still really needs to work on his standup. His ground game is fantastic but his stand up is too wide and can be easily countered. He should face off against the winner of Mizugaki and Hougland. Both of those guys would be a tough test for TJ; Mizugaki in the standup and Hougland on the ground.

Possible matchups for Lee: Lee seems very undersized at 135 to me. I think a move down to 125 would pay off very well. He is very well rounded and very fast on his feet. Another bantamweight that just moved down to 125 is Jared Papazian. These guys would put on an amazing fight and I would hate to see either of them go for the loser would most likely be cut.

Francis Carmont vs. Karlos Vemola: I really like both of these guys. They both have tons of potential and like to finish fights. The first round was close but Carmont most likely won for his takedowns and controlling the standup. Eventually in the second round, he had Vemola in a crucifix and transitioned into a RNC for the finish.

Possible matchups for Carmont: Carmont wants a top-10 guy, I say not yet. Him and Costa Philippou have been doing very well at middleweight lately and they should face off in the near future. The winner of that fight should be able to take big step up in competition, possibly top-10.

Possible matchups for Vemola: The heavyweight turned middleweight has one big problem in his fights: impatience. He thinks he finds a guillotine, so he dives on it without trying to set it up. He sprints forward for the takedown and gets caught doing so. If he can be patient, he could do big things. Clifford Starks could be the perfect opponent to help him with that. Starks is a big and very athletic 185er who is a hard fight for anyone not named Anderson Silva at middleweight. If Vemola could be patient in a fight with Starks, he would win.

Aaron Simpson vs. Kenny Robertson: This fight was the second one mentioned in the first paragraph. The first round was pretty fun but after that, the best shots landed were knees to the butt. Seriously. Eventually, Simpson won the dominant decision win.

Possible matchups for Simpson: I’m still interested to see how well Jon Fitch will recover from his loss to Hendricks. I wouldn’t mind seeing them fight eventually.

Possible matchups for Robertson: I don’t really have much interest in Robertson after this performance and I wouldn’t be surprised if he is cut. But a fight between him and Besam Yousef would be a loser goes home fight.

James Te Huna vs. Joey Beltran: “The Mexicutioner” never fails to put on an awesome fight. This was one of the best fights so far this year and will most likely be running for FOTY later in 2012. Te Huna also landed the most significant strikes in one round and the whole fight; a record for the 205 pound division. It was a dominant win for Te Huna and I believe that he is ready to take on some big names.

Possible matchups for Te Huna: Glover Teixeira is fighting Rampage at UFC 153. Win or lose, Te Huna vs. Glover Teixeira is guaranteed fireworks. They both love to finish and I believe that Te Huna would be a really tough test for Glover.

Possible matchups for Beltran: The newest addition to the UFC light heavyweight division is Jimi Manuwa, who is now the former BAMMA 205 champion. He still doesn’t have his debut fight set up and Beltran is always a good test for new comers.

Chris Weidman vs. Mark Munoz: No one has ever, EVER, dominated Mark Munoz like that. I thought that Weidman would have the slightest wrestling advantage but not as big as it showed in this fight. Weidman took down Mark at will, and held him there. Weidman was continually going for chokes and armbars and kimuras. He was relentless. He did the same again in the beginning of the second round but Munoz got back up. Mark swung a big right hand; Chris ducked under it and elbowed him straight in the face, nearly knocking out Munoz. He drops to the floor and Weidman lands around 15 unanswered punches to the side of the head of Munoz. It was brutal and one of the latest stoppages that I have ever seen.

Possible matchups for Weidman: This 28-year-old kid could very well be the person to dethrone Anderson Silva. It’s only his 9^th fight in his career and he dominated a top-3 middleweight. He has the wrestling that can beat Anderson. He has a submission game so he can defend against Silva’s attacks off his back. His standup is the only question but it looked amazing on Wednesday. Munoz never even landed a single punch. He is basically a better, stronger, more humble version of Chael Sonnen. If he does get this fight with Silva, which I think he deserves, I might just go with him.

Possible matchups for Munoz: This was a devastating loss for Mark. The guy is a class act and I never like to see him lose. But he is still a top-10 middleweight. Hector Lombard and Tim Boetsch are fighting in a week, so the loser of that could come fight Munoz for a rebound fight.

For Prelim Recap Click Here