UFC 146: Dos Santos vs. Mir Predictions

Sam’s Picks

Main Card

Junior Dos Santos vs. Frank Mir: This has been considered one of the most unwarranted title shots in UFC history and I can’t help but agree with that. Mir KO’d Cro Cop in one of the worst main events of all time, dominated Roy Nelson in a grueling match that they both struggled in, and submitted Nogueira after nearly being KO’d himself. Dos Santos has not shown a single weakness in his UFC thus far. Mir has no chance in this fight! = Dos Santos by 1st round KO. My pick for KOOTN!

Antonio Silva vs. Cain Velazquez: Cormier destroyed Silva by KO in the first round. Velazquez is just a better, larger version of Cormier. I’m still really happy to see Silva in the UFC though, he will be a good gatekeeper at heavyweight in the UFC = Velazquez by 2nd round TKO.

Dave Herman vs. Roy Nelson: This is a really hard fight to pick. Nelson has looked absolutely horrible lately. Herman is such an unpredictable fighter, that you can never tell whether he will look really good, or like a piece of crap. The safer pick would be Herman. Nelson almost lost to Cro Cop, dominated by Mir and Dos Santos, and annihilated by Fabricio Werdum. I see Herman playing it smart, and utilizing his reach, picking him apart = Herman by unanimous decision. My 3rd pick for FOTN!

Shane Del Rosario vs. Stipe Miocic: I am very excited for this fight. They are both up and coming undefeated heavyweights really looking to make names for themselves. Miocic has an extremely bright future ahead of him. He was a very good NCAA D-1 wrestler and a Golden Glove champ. That is a very good MMA background. Del Rosario, on the other hand, has very sloppy kickboxing and an okay ground game. Miocic should win this one handily = Miocic by 3rd round TKO.

Lavar Johnson vs. Stefan Struve: This fight is one of the few fights that could literally go either way. It could either be Johnson by early KO or Struve by first or second round submission. The safer pick would be Johnson, but the possibly smarter choice would be for Struve. Johnson has one of the most shameful ground games under the ZUFFA banner. Is he even a Mixed Martial Artist? It doesn’t even seem that he trains for submission defense. All he does is power his way out; at least Barry used a little technique while defending against the armbar in the Morecraft fight. Struve has all the qualities to become a future champ, but his chin betrays him often. That’s the danger. This is a scary one = Struve by 1st round submission (RNC). My pick for FOTN!

Prelims
Diego Brandao vs. Darren Elkins = Brandao by 2nd round KO (another hard one)
Edson Barboza vs. Jamie Varner = Barboza by split decision. My 1st pick for FOTN!
C.B. Dollaway vs. Jason "Mayhem" Miller = Mayhem by 2nd round submission (arm)
Dan Hardy vs. Duane "Bang" Ludwig = Ludwig by unanimous decision. My 2nd pick for FOTN!
Paul Sass vs. Jacob Volkmann = Volkmann by split decision
Kyle Kingsbury vs. Glover Teixeira = Teixeira by unanimous decision
Mike Brown vs. Daniel Pineda = Brown by split decision

Dave’s Picks

Main Card

Junior Dos Santos vs. Frank Mir: Frank Mir’s record is 16-5 with all 5 of those losses coming by way of KO. JDS is 14-1 with 10 of those wins coming by way of KO. If that doesn’t tell you something right there then you’re crazy. But Mir is a threat to anyone. He does have punching power and he is one of the best grapplers in the world. If it goes to the ground, especially with Mir on top, JDS could definitely be in trouble. However, JDS has never been taken down and he has fought some great wrestlers and grapplers. Cain Velasquez, Shane Carwin, Roy Nelson, Gonzaga, Struve, Werdum. These are all top level fighters and grapplers. And no one could even come close to doing anything to him. In my head I see JDS knocking Mir’s head off his body. And that is truly the most likely scenario. I feel very safe with this pick. = JDS by KO in round 1. My Pick for KO of the Night!

Antonio Silva vs. Cain Velasquez: Bigfoot is coming off a big KO loss to Daniel Cormier. Cormier is a smaller heavyweight with decent striking and great wrestling who trains at AKA. Well, that sentence also works for Cain Velasquez. They are very similar and train together, that’s huge. Silva has yet to fight in the UFC but I don’t think he will get the jitters. But I see Cain emulating Cormier’s game plan but mixing in more wrestling. There is a good possibility that Silva could KO Cain but as long as Cain plays it smart he should win. = Cain by unanimous decision. 

Dave Herman vs. Roy Nelson: So, Herman is taking this fight on short notice and it scares me a bit. Herman has not looked great in his two fights in the UFC. He beat Einemo but got clipped way too much by a BJJ guy. He started off okay against Struve but was finished in the 2^nd round. Herman also has never really faced top level competition outside of Struve. Nelson has had a UFC career of mixed results. He has had some major highs and major lows. However, he has power and if Herman lets himself get punched in the face, as much as he has in his other fights, he will go to sleep. Plus I think Nelson has the advantage on the ground as long as he is on top. Anything can happen in this fight but if JDS, Mir and Werdum can’t KO Nelson then I don’t think Herman can either. I'm struggling with this one but I'm going with my gut. Probably will be a close one. = Herman by unanimous decision. My Pick for Fight of the Night!

Shane Del Rosario vs. Stipe Miocic: Shane looks to have a big future in this sport. He has great potential and hopefully will accomplish a lot. But there are a few major factors to consider. He has fought twice in the last 2 years and hasn’t fought at all since February 2011. And the other factor is due to a horrible injury. Plus, he will be making his UFC debut and we all know that can play a factor. Stipe is also a great talent in his own right. He has good striking and kicks with power in both. His wrestling is very good too. I see this fight going exactly like this: they come out standing, Stipe starts landing bombs, Shane goes in for a sloppy takedown and it gets stuffed, Stipe unloads and the ref steps in. = Stipe by TKO in round 1. 

Lavar Johnson vs. Stefan Struve: So, originally Struve was supposed to fight Mark Hunt who is a deadly kick boxer but Hunt was injured a couple weeks ago. So, Lavar Johnson is stepping in. Lavar is bigger and stronger but has less tools. Lavar rarely kicks and his ground game is much worse than Hunt’s. Struve is my boy! I talked to him for a bit in December before his fight with Dave Herman. He told me that he will fight smarter from now on. And he did against Herman. If this stays standing Lavar can KO Struve but if it goes to the ground Lavar will be finished within 1 minute. And I see Struve playing it smart and taking it to the ground and finishing it quick. = Struve by submission in round 1. My Pick for Submission of the Night!

Prelims

Diego Brandao vs. Darren Elkins: Diego by TKO in round 2.

Edson Barboza vs. Jamie Varner: Barboza by TKO in round 3.

C.B. Dollaway vs. Jason "Mayhem" Miller: Mayhem by unanimous decision.

Dan Hardy vs. Duane Ludwig: Hardy by split decision.

Paul Sass vs. Jacob Volkmann: Volkmann by unanimous decision.

Kyle Kingsbury vs. Glover Teixeira: Kingsbury by split decision.

Mike Brown vs. Daniel Pineda: Brown by majority decision.