UFC on Fox 3 Predictions

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Sam’s Picks

Main  Card

Jim Miller vs. Nate Diaz: When I first saw that this fight was set up, I thought that I would be an easy win for Miller. That he would cruise to a decision victory. But then my brother Dave made a good point. He said, “Can you see Miller really dominating him in the standup and the ground game?”. I was like “Sure!”, so I tried to imagine it, but I simply couldn’t. Diaz has the more technical standup, a huge reach advantage, and way better BJJ. But the thing about Miller is that he simply finds a way to win a fight. I truly believe in my heart that Miller will win this fight but Diaz will be one of his toughest fights in that he will win = Miller by split decision. My 1st pick for FOTN!

Johny Hendricks vs. Josh Koscheck: Really good fight here. They are similar fighters in that they both have huge over right hands and dynamic wrestling skills. Originally, you might look at this fight and say that Koscheck should win this fight based on his past opponents. But one thing that my brother and I have noticed about Koscheck is that he cannot adapt in the middle of the fight. If he says that he is going to KO someone, that will be what he will go for the whole fight, never changing even if he is being picked apart by jabs ala GSP. Hendricks does have that skill. He CAN adapt and as of late, he is simply the better fighter = Hendricks by unanimous decision.

Alan Belcher vs. Rousimar Palhares: Paul Harris has really become a very serious fighter to take notice of. He is showing some world caliber BJJ with his slick and shockingly precise leg locks. It also very awesome to see that Belcher is back and ready to go but I think that just his second fight back after being gone for so long is a little tough considering who he is fighting. Paul Harris will leg lock him but will probably have trouble getting it to the ground at first. This fight will launch Rousimar just one win away from a fight for the title = Paul Harris by 3rd round heel hook. My pick for SOTN!

Pat Barry vs. Lavar Johnson: This fight is probably just going to be a stand up war. But if you look at each one of their ground games, Barry’s is probably better. And considering the fact that Barry is continually working on his ground game, he might actually try and take this fight to the ground. It’s a possibility, but it is very slim. I’m still going with Lavar based on his power and that Barry’s chin looked bad against Kongo. Going with the power! = Johnson by 2nd round KO. My pick for KOOTN!

Prelims

Tony Ferguson vs. Michael Johnson: I personally find this fight very weird. Ferguson has been quickly establishing himself as a serious contender as Johnson has been struggling to keep himself relevant to the UFC brass. Johnson literally has no chance of winning this fight = Ferguson by 2nd round TKO.

John Dodson vs. Tim Elliott: Dodson is an animal! He has some crazy power for his size along with some blinding speed. I’m serious; his speed is some of the fastest punching that you will ever see. Elliot, on the other hand, I do not know much about but I do know that he has a bright future in the UFC but he doesn’t have anything against Dodson, considering the fact that he also took this fight on very short notice. = Dodson by 1st round TKO.

John Hathaway vs. Pascal Krauss: I find this fight very interesting. Krauss is a virtual nobody and Hathaway is a huge young prospect from England. Krauss also has not fought in a very long time. That is a big deciding factor in this fight. Hathaway will win this fight based on all around skills, but Krauss will give him a run for his money. = Hathaway by split decision. My 3rd pick for FOTN!

Louis Gaudinot vs. John Lineker: At first, I counted Lineker out of this fight based on the fact that he has no name in MMA, yet. I was just going with Gaudinot by decision because I have heard of him. Research can be very resourceful. I looked at the fighters that Guadinot has faced and the accumulation of the records of the fighters he has beaten is 32-17. It is mainly made up of a guy he has recently beaten with an 11-2 record. That would knock it down to 21-15. That’s not so good. Lineker on the other hand, has a record of 19-5 and is riding a 13 fight win streak against guys with good records. Gaudinot has yet to impress me and Lineker has the chance to on Saturday. = Lineker by unanimous decision. My 2nd pick for FOTN!

Danny Castillo vs. John Cholish: I really feel that Cholish will one day be a contender for the belt but for now, Castillo will put those dreams on hold. Castillo really still hasn’t impressed me; the only thing that he has done that actually made me go “wow, that’s impressive” was when I read that he is the only one who has defeated Dustin Poirier. Cholish will be tough but Castillo will out grapple him, but I won’t be surprised if Cholish wins = Castillo by split decision.

Pablo Garza vs. Dennis Bermudez: The betting lines really surprised me for this fight. Bermudez is the very small favorite but I would have guessed that Garza would be a decent favorite. Garza is a future contender for the belt while I can never see Bermudez fighting at that high caliber level. Along with that, Bermudez has lost 3 straight all in the first round by submission. Garza is a submission guy. See what I’m getting at? = Garza by 2nd round submission (choke).

Roland Delorme vs. Nick Denis = Denis by unanimous decision.
Mike Massenzio vs. Karlos Vemola = Vemola by 2nd round TKO.

Dave’s Picks

Main Card

Jim Miller vs. Nate Diaz: Like Sam had mentioned I too believe Miller will win this fight but when I picture it in my head I see Diaz winning the standup and ground game. It’s bizarre! But like Sam said I am still picking Miller to win but it will be a very close and tough fight for both men. This fight will be a very technical match both standing and on the ground. Miller will have the wrestling advantage but Diaz will have the better ground game but Miller is a very smart and conservative fighter. He rarely makes mistakes. This fight is a tough one. = Miller by unanimous decision. My pick for Fight of the Night!

Johny Hendricks vs. Josh Koscheck: I love this fight because, as most of you know, I am obsessed with amateur wrestling. These guys were two very fun guys to watch during their college days. I have always liked Hendricks because I have a special place in my heart for OSU wrestling. It’s my favorite team with my favorite coach, John Smith. So, I am biased towards Johny. But I never let that affect my pcks, however, it just so happens I think he will win. I think he will be stronger, faster and the better grappler. Koscheck is a great fighter and well rounded but his days of being near the top are soon to be over. He is getting older and has simply not improved that much over the last few years. Hendricks has been improving my leaps and bounds since he entered into the UFC. I see this fight mostly being a stand up battle but if Hendricks starts losing that I see him outwrestle Kos. But if Kos is losing that I don’t think he can outwrestle Johny. Not only that but Kos is one of those fighters who refuses to change his approach in the midst of a fight. If he is losing the stand up battle he will not try and grapple and that has been a problem for him his entire career. Should be an interesting match. = Johny by unanimous decision. 

Alan Belcher vs. Rousimar Palhares: This is a classic grappler vs. striker. I like watching both of these guys compete and it should be a fun one. I’m really glad Belcher made a return to fighting after his horrible retina injury. The way I see this going is Palhares eventually getting a takedown or grabbing a leg or arm and ending it at some point. Belcher’s take down defense and clinch fighting is pretty good but Palhares is just such a monster and I just cannot see him losing this fight. = Palhares by submission in the 2^nd round. My Pick for Submission of the Night!

Pat Barry vs. Lavar Johnson: I think this is actually the only fight we disagree on this card! We usually have around 4 but we have been agreeing lately. But anyway, this fight will be INSANE!! Now, my gut says pick Lavar because he punches so hard that it is hard to watch and not cringe. But I just watched his fight with Beltran again. That is arguably Lavar’s best fight to date and I gotta admit Lavar looked not too great before he destroyed Beltran. His jab is awful and his footwork and lack of head movement scares me when picking this fight. Barry’s chin issue against Kongo has me worried but Barry has ten times the technical striking that Lavar does. Barry’s kicks are lethal and if Barry fights smart this fight is his. He should stay outside and leg kick the heck out of Lavar. Then switch it up with head kicks and punches to the head. Plus Barry has better cardio too. And Lavar has the worst ground game I have ever seen in my life but he knows that himself. So, I think Barry has more ways to win, he just has to tuck that chin, = Barry by unanimous decision.

Prelims

Tony Ferguson vs. Michael Johnson: I disagree with Sam that this will be super easy for Tony. I think Tony will win because his striking is much better but Johnson is a scrappy guy who never gives up. But I see Tony out striking Johnson and coasting at the end after winning the first two rounds. = Tony by unanimous decision. 

John Dodson vs. Tim Elliott: Dodson is a freaky athlete. The dude has strength like nothing you’ve seen, especially for his size. Elliott is a decent fighter but this is a tune-up fight for Dodson at flyweight and to get him some exposure. This fight will be very exciting. = Dodson by TKO in the 2^nd round. 

John Hathaway vs. Pascal Krauss: Like Sam mentioned the fact that Krauss hasn’t fought is over a year is a huge deal. Hathaway is a very interesting fighter. He comes in and easily handles Diego Sanchez but then gets handled by Mike Pyle. It’s just confusing. I mean Pyle is a great fighter but it’s just confusing. I have Hathaway pulling this out but he is very unpredictable. = Hathaway by unanimous decision. 

Louis Gaudinot vs. John Lineker: This is a good and exciting fight. I’m loving these flyweight guys!!!! But Lineker, from the small amount of what I have seen, is a level above Louis. Louis has not shown me anything to make me think he can handle Lineker. = Lineker by unanimous decision. 

Danny Castillo vs. John Cholish: I disagree with Sam’s assessment of Cholish. I think the guy is talented but, in my opinion, he is nowhere near title contender talent. And I also disagree with his assessment of Danny. I think Danny is the real deal. He has faced and defeated some very serious competition. I see Danny taking this to the ground and owning it. = Danny by unanimous decision. 

Pablo Garza vs. Dennis Bermudez: Garza has some slick submissions and Dennis is highly overrated with poor submission defense. = Garza by submission in the 2^nd round. 

Roland Delorme vs. Nick Denis = Denis by TKO in round 1.
Mike Massenzio vs. Karlos Vemola = Vemola by TKO in round one.

Make sure to watch the prelims on Fuel TV and the Main Card on FOX for free! Great card filled with top talent and two very important fights with the winner of Diaz vs. Miller getting a title shot and the fight between Hendricks vs. Koscheck moving closer to one as well. Let us know on Twitter what you guys think of our picks!! Enjoy the fights!!