UFC on Fox 4: Shogun vs. Vera Predictions

UFC on Fox 4

Sam's Picks
Main Card

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua vs. Brandon Vera: The fact that the UFC made this the main event of a Fox card is just plain bizarre. The last time that Vera won against anyone who was anywhere near close to be considered a title contender was an out of shape, just recovered from a major motorcycle accident, and nervous Frank Mir. That was back at UFC 65 and he won via first round TKO. After that, he went 4-5 and if you want to count the Thiago Silva fight: 4-6. Shogun’s career himself is winding down and isn’t near a title shot in most people’s opinion. Shogun literally has the advantage anywhere this fight goes: the ground, striking, and the clinch. And when I think about it, Vera doesn’t have the power for a puncher’s chance; therefore, there is quite literally no chance for him to win. It would be awesome to see him win though to resurge his career = Shogun by 4^th round TKO.  My pick for KOOTN!

Lyoto Machida vs. Ryan Bader: This fight is tough to pick. Bader has looked very good since his last loss to Tito and Machida looked like the old Machida in the first round against Jones back at UFC 140. Although, Bader’s last win wasn’t all that impressive due to the fact that it was a unanimous decision win over an extremely under motivated Rampage Jackson, it was still a win over a former champion and that certainly counts for something. But the one thing that I haven’t seen anyone talk about yet is the fact that this fight may have title implications on the line. Machida’s sole purpose in life is to be a champion, if this fight has a title shot at the end of it for the winner, then Machida is going to be one of the best fighters in the world due to motivation = Machida by 3^rd round TKO.

Jamie Varner vs. Joe Lauzon: This fight is another hard one to pick because Varner looked amazing in his last performance and Lauzon showed that he is capable of being KO’d in his. If Varner can come out with the same aggressiveness that he did against Barboza, then he should be able to win this one. Lauzon fights like such a veteran though. He’s patient and always finds a way to win. I really want to go with Varner but Lauzon is the much more careful pick = Lauzon by 2^nd round submission (choke). My pick for SOTN and 2^nd for FOTN!!

Mike Swick vs. DaMarques Johnson: I am super happy to finally see Swick making his comeback. After two and a half years of absence, he is returning in a big fight. The first fight on Fox is extremely important and both Johnson and Swick are highly entertaining fighters that love to bang. I see Swick winning this fight wherever it goes = Swick by unanimous decision.  My 3^rd pick for FOTN!

Prelims

Cole Miller vs. Nam Phan = Miller by 1^st round submission (triangle choke)

Phil Davis vs. Wagner Prado = Davis by 1^st round submission

Josh Grispi vs. Rani Yahya = Yahya by 3^rd round submission

Phil De Fries vs. Oli Thompson = De Fries by split decision

Manny Gamburyan vs. Michihiro Omigawa = Gamburyan by split decision

Ulysses Gomez vs. John Moraga = Gomez by 2^nd round submission (RNC). My 1^st pick for FOTN!

Dave’s Picks

Main Card

Mauricio "Shogun" Rua vs. Brandon Vera: This fight is weird and makes no sense in a lot of ways. Shogun has been fighting big names and 3 fights ago he was a champion. Vera is 1-2 in his last 3 but also lost a fight to Thiago Silva, but that was turned into a no contest when Silva tested positive for steroids. Vera has had a weird and up and down UFC career. However he finds himself in a title contender match against a guy who does not deserve one himself. Everyone is making a big deal that Vera should not get a shot at the title; well I am saying Shogun should not either. Shogun is only 4-4 in the UFC and is coming off a loss. Shogun beat Mark Coleman (8 years past his prime) in one of the sloppiest fights ever. He then beat Chuck Liddell (2 years past his prime). Then received a title shot and lost a close decision. Then KO’d Machida in an instant rematch for the title. Then lost the most one-sided title fight in which the champion lost that I have ever seen in MMA. Then he KO’d Forrest Griffin (2 years past his prime). Then he lost to Dan Henderson. What about this plus beating Vera equals a title shot? I don’t understand it. This fight might be fun or boring based on Shoguns aggressiveness. But I see Shogun being able to dominate in the clinch but I wouldn’t mind seeing resurgence in Vera. = Shogun by unanimous decision.

Ryan Bader vs. Lyoto Machida: Now this fight will be a fun one. Bader is going to have a hard time getting this to the ground. I think Bader is a tailor made opponent for the elusive Machida and I see Machida winning a decision that hopefully turns his career back around. = Machida by unanimous decision.

Joe Lauzon vs. Jamie Varner: This fight will be a ton of fun. Both of these guys go for it from bell to bell. I think Lauzon will have the advantage on the ground but Varner will have the advantage standing. I think if Varner can get out of the first round and wear Lauzon down he can take 2 out of the 3 rounds. = Varner by unanimous decision.  My Pick for Fight of the Night!

DaMarques Johnson vs. Mike Swick: If Swick didn’t miss two and a half years due to injuries then I would pick him to win in a heartbeat. Swick is faster, stronger and has better striking. Johnson might have the advantage on the ground. He looked good grappling against John Maguire before getting submitted. This one is hard to pick for me but I am going with Swick because he comes from a great camp with training partners that are much better than Johnson = Swick by unanimous decision.

Prelims

Cole Miller vs. Nam Phan: Miller by unanimous decision.

Phil Davis vs. Wagner Prado: Davis by unanimous decision.

Josh Grispi vs. Rani Yahya: Yahya by unanimous decision.

Phil De Fries vs. Oli Thompson: De Fries by unanimous decision.

Manny Gamburyan vs. Michihiro Omigawa: Omigawa by split decision.

Ulysses Gomez vs. John Moraga: Gomez by split decision.