UFC 156: Aldo vs. Edgar Predictions

Dave’s Picks

Main Card

Jose Aldo vs. Frankie Edgar: Wow…wow…I cannot wait for this fight. This is as close as a champion vs. champion matchup can get. It’s no UFC 94 but its close. I believe the fights Frankie had with Benson Henderson are very telling. Benson is slightly faster and stronger than Frankie and that helped Henderson to “win” those fights. Even if you think Frankie won you have to admit he struggled quite a bit. Aldo is faster and maybe even stronger (in my opinion) than Henderson. The speed advantage will be a big deal in this fight. If Aldo can land first and harm Frankie’s semi-weak chin then it will be lights out. The only hope Frankie has to win, and it is a definitely possibility, is to outwrestle Aldo for 5 rounds. But can Frankie do that without being finished and can he repeatedly take Aldo down throughout the fight? I don’t know if he can. This fight interests me more than almost any fight in a long time. I just think Aldo is too much for Frankie. = Aldo by unanimous decision. My Pick for Fight of the Night!

Rashad Evans vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira: I love the Nog boys but this will be a beatdown. Rashad, minus his fight with Jones, has really perfected his craft. His MMA wrestling is top notch and will be way too much for Nog to handle. Rashad’s ground and pound might actually be strong enough to finish Nog by TKO but Nog’s chin is extremely good. I see Rashad smothering Nog with takedowns and top control until the final bell rings. = Rashad by unanimous decision.

Alistair Overeem vs. Antonio Silva: Oh boy. This will get ugly. Bigfoot is a great fighter but he is the perfect opponent for Overeem to destroy. He is nowhere near the level of striking that Overeem has achieved and his chin is degrading. I see Bigfoot coming out and trying to get the clinch up against the fence but Alistair having none of it and landing bombs so hard that people will look away. = Overeem by KO in round 1. My Pick for KO of the Night!

Jon Fitch vs. Demian Maia: Another great and interesting matchup. I would normally pick Fitch without too much thought but his fight with Erick Silva scares me. Yes that fight was awesome and he won but Silva had Fitch’s back and had a RNC sunk. If that happens in this fight, Maia will choke him out so fast he won’t even have a chance to tap. So, Fitch will have to fight with a much tighter ground game then he has in his last few fights. Maia has also looked like a fiery beast since dropping to 170 and looks to be easily handling top 10 guys. This fight is by far the hardest to pick but I am going to go with the safer pick. = Fitch by unanimous decision.

Joseph Benavidez vs. Ian McCall: Another great and important fight, such a great card. Sadly fan favorite McCall will lose again in the UFC. I was extremely shocked at Benavidez’s performance against Demetrious Johnson. I thought Benavidez was going to kill Johnson and be Flyweight Champion for a very long time. But I still think he may be the best flyweight alive. This fight will be another speedy technical battle but I think Benavidez just had the greater skill set and will smother McCall for the victory. = Benavidez by unanimous decision.  

Prelims

Evan Dunham vs. Gleison Tibau: This fight is hard to pick as well but Evan struggles against stronger guys. I am not sure if Evan has what it takes to stop Tibau’s takedowns and get back up once he is taken down. In my mind I see Tibau bullying Evan throughout the fight and getting an ugly win. = Tibua by split decision.

Tyron Woodley vs. Jay Hieron: Another difficult fight to predict. I believe Woodley is the better wrestler but Hieron’s style has proven to be hard for wrestler’s to handle. I want to go with Woodley but Hieron just finds ways to win. I am not sure what the safer pick is but I’m going to go with the better wrestler. = Woodley by split decision.

Yves Edwards vs. Isaac Vallie-Flagg: I want go with Isaac but Edwards looked so good in his last fight. I think Yves is just too fast and will be able to use his superior footwork and skill set to take a close one. = Edwards by unanimous decision.

Jacob Volkmann vs. Bobby Green: Green is an underrated fighter with great skills but Volkmann is the perfect fighter to be able to beat him. Volkmann will be able to outwrestle Green and just blanket him. Volkmann could get a finish but Green will probably last. = Volkmann by unanimous decision.

Edwin Figueroa vs. Francisco Rivera = Rivera by 2^nd round TKO.

Chico Camus vs. Dustin Kimura = Camus by unanimous decision.

Sam’s Picks

Main Card

Jose Aldo vs. Frankie Edgar: I can’t even remember the last time that the UFC had a super fight. This has been such a long awaited matchup ever since the UFC brought over the lower weight divisions. They are both going to be hardest test for each other, but what does that mean for Frankie, who is riding a two fight losing streak? Those two losses were so close and so debatable that a lot of people don’t even really view them as a full on undisputed losses. Aldo on the other hand, has only lost once and it was earlier in his career is too Luciano Azevedo. Aldo does arguably have the better power than Gray Maynard, but it's in his kicks and knees. Frankie’s best bet is to try and grind Aldo down, similar to what Florian did against Aldo in the first round. When striking. Edgar needs to be very in and out, really working the body and surprising him with a headshot. But Aldo won’t let him do that, at least not for a majority of the fight. Aldo will nearly finish him on a few occasions, but Frankie’s heart will push through. Aldo will win the first three rounds, and Frankie will win the championship rounds = Aldo via unanimous decision (48-47). My 1^st pick for FOTN!

Rashad Evans vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira: Though both of these guys are top-10 light heavyweights, this is a bit of a mismatch. Phil Davis absolutely dominated Nogueira on the ground. Rashad Evans dominated Phil Davis on the ground. Nogueira’s only hope is to throw something up from his back or hope to out-technique him in the boxing = Evans via unanimous decision.

Alistair Overeem vs. Antonio Silva: This fight is similar to the co-main event: both top guys, complete mismatch. Silva is coming off of a very impressive first round KO over Travis Browne, which was a big surprise to many, even people picking Silva to win. Overeem, though, is on a whole other planet when it comes to striking ability. His power and technique is unmatched by most and Silva has shown a skeptical chin. Overeem will finish this fight with ease = Overeem via 1^st round KO. My pick for KOOTN!

Jon Fitch vs. Demian Maia: I absolutely love this fight. Ever since Maia made the decision to drop down to welterweight, he has looked amazing. His submission and takedown offense is even more prominent than during his good days in his middleweight run. Fitch is coming off of his fight of the night with Erick Silva, which was an incredible back-and-forth fight. There was one point where Fitch showed off his unchokable-ness. Silva had his back and with a rear naked choke sunk in, Fitch somehow never went unconscious. If Maia had that position with the choked locked in the way Silva did, Fitch would have been done. But Silva only received that back position due to his intense aggressiveness, something that Maia does not have. Maia does have the ability to submit anyone, but Fitch will grind him out while Maia throws up a lot of submission attempts. It will be close = Fitch via split decision.

Joseph Benavidez vs. Ian McCall: Now this is the way that you start a PPV. With both guys coming off of close decision losses to the champion, Demetrious Johnson, a title shot is very well on the line. With Benavidez’ only losses to present day champions, you must question how he does under such pressure. McCall is a guy who does well under the spotlight; he is very charismatic and does well in big-name fights, despite his loss to Johnson in a main event. They are equally skilled grapplers with very even striking. Who will be faster? It’s very hard to say but I would have to go with McCall; he’s been the flyweight for longer therefore he is more adapted to the weight cut. Easier weight cut equals better cardio and speed. McCall seems to have the upper hand in a lot of areas, but Benavidez is just too difficult to bet against = Benavidez via unanimous decision. My 2^nd pick for FOTN!

Prelims

Evan Dunham vs. Gleison Tibau: With both fighters looking rather mediocre as of late, it’s hard to decide who I want to go with. Tibau will most likely be the stronger fighter, an advantage he almost always holds. Dunham will have the speed and ground advantage. Though Tibau does have a fantastic ground game, Dunham has shown more offense with his grappling, something I believe will lead him to victory = Dunham via split decision.

Tyron Woodley vs. Jay Hieron: Back in October of 2011, Jay Hieron was stolen out of a victory over present day Bellator welterweight champ in Ben Askren. Though it was a close fight, Hieron seemed to be the victor. Woodley is a very similar fighter to that of Ben Askren. If Hieron is to use a similar gameplan that he used against Askren, he could very well win. But I just simply can’t bet against a wrestler = Woodley via unanimous decision.

Yves Edwards vs. Isaac Vallie-Flagg: Both guys have looked fantastic lately, with Edwards’ KO over Jeremy Stephens and Isaac’s barnburner upset over JZ Cavalcante. Edwards will undoubtedly have the upper hand in the experience category, Vallie-Flagg is the one fighter entering into his prime and with Greg Jackson in his corner, he will most likely have a great gameplan. These guys are very evenly matched, but I see Isaac narrowly pulling this one out for the upset once again = Vallie-Flagg via split decision. My 3^rd pick for FOTN!

Jacob Volkmann vs. Bobby Green: I see this fight going one of two ways: Volkmann gets him down and submits him early, similar to what he did to Shane Roller, or he grinds Green out for a decision win. With Greens under-average ground game, I believe the former is the more likely scenario = Volkmann via 1^st round submission. My pick for SOTN!

Edwin Figueroa vs. Francisco Rivera = Rivera via 3^rd round TKO.

Chico Camus vs. Dustin Kimura = Camus via 3nd round TKO.