UFC 144 Predictions

Dave’s Picks

Main Card

Frankie Edgar vs. Ben Henderson (for lightweight title): I’m so pumped for this fight. Both guys put on exciting fast paced fights with great boxing and fantastic wrestling. Ben Henderson has a great chance out overpowering Frankie and smothering him for 5 rounds. Ben is a huge lightweight and Frankie is a small one. However, Frankie just knocked out a guy just like that in Gray Maynard. Ben is used to having the speed advantage in a lot of his fight but he won’t against Frankie. And at this point can you honestly bet against Frankie? = Frankie by unanimous decision. My Pick for Fight of the Night!

Ryan Bader vs. Quinton "Rampage" Jackson: I don’t know what to think of this fight. Bader could win this if he fights smart and takes away Rampage’s striking by putting Rampage against the fence and going for takedowns. But both times Bader was on the big stage were the only times he lost.Fighting as co-main event in Japan against Rampage will be too much for him. Plus once he feels Rampage’s punching power I think he might crumble like he did against Jones. = Rampage by TKO in round 2.

Cheick Kongo vs. Mark Hunt: On the feet, despite Kongo’s reach advantage, I see Hunt winning. However, anytime in his career, Kongo takes fights to the ground when he needs to. His takedowns are definitely good enough to take down Mark Hunt, keep him there and finish him with some serious ground and pound = Kongo by TKO in round 2. My Pick for KO of the Night!

Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Jake Shields: Akiyama is a good fighter but not elite. This is his first weight cut to welterweight and he is not on the same level as Shields. Jake will struggle with Akiyama’s striking but will get the takedown eventually and at least keep Akiyama down. I’m not sure if Shields will submit him but I wouldn’t be shocked. = Shields by unanimous decision. 

Tim Boetsch vs. Yushin Okami: This fight could either be very boring or a lot of fun. Boestsch has been perfect since dropping down to middleweight but he hasn’t faced anyone as good as Okami. Okami will has more precise punching down the pipe, he will be faster and maybe even stronger in the clinch. I think it would be awesome to see Boetsch will but I really doubt it. = Okami by unanimous decision

Hatsu Hioki and Bart Palaszewski: This fight will be much closer than most people think. Bart has a great chance at winning this with his superior striking and underrated ground game. However, I think Hatsu got caught up in the “UFC jitters” and had a rough outing against Roop. I think he will bounce back and take this one but it will be close. = Hioki by unanimous decision.

Joe Lauzon vs. Anthony Pettis: This one is the hardest fight to pick. Lauzon has been looking very good lately and Pettis has been looking flat and not as good as he did in the WEC. This one could literally go either way but I think Pettis will have the advantage on the feet and Lauzon should have it on the ground. But I’m going to go against my gut on this one. I think Pettis can outlast Lauzon’s early barrage and then take over and win by decision or submission. Every fight that Lauzon can’t finish early he ends up gassing and losing. = Pettis by submission in round 3. My Pick for Submission of the Night!

Prelims

Takanori Gomi vs. Eiji Mitsuoka: Gomi by split decision.

Vaughan Lee vs. Norifumi "Kid" Yamamoto: Kid Yamamoto by unanimous decision.

Steve Cantwell vs. Riki Fukuda: Fukuda by split decision.

Chris Cariaso vs. Takeya Mizugaki: Takeya by unanimous decision.

Issei Tamura vs. Tiequan Zhang: Zhang by unanimous decision.

Sam’s Picks

Main Card

Frankie Edgar vs. Benson Henderson: This is the fight that I am most looking forward to in 2012. It is also one of the hardest fights to pick, even the betting lines are even. Ever since Henderson has come to the UFC, he has looked unstoppable, running through the likes of Jim Miller, Mark Bocek, and Clay Guida. Frankie, on the other hand, has the heart of a lion, coming back from adversity twice in his fights with Gray Maynard, with the second one winning by KO. There is also a huge size disadvantage for the champ, he really should be fighting at 145 but he still has been able to be a successful champ. Henderson is a very large lightweight which could make this a very bad matchup for Frankie. I really want to go with Henderson on this one but I have been betting against the champions a lot lately and it hasn’t exactly been working out. Frankie should utilize his jab and move out of there quickly, go for the decision = Frankie by unanimous decision. My pick for FOTN!

Rampage Jackson vs. Ryan Bader: Bader seems to really be counted out of this fight. Bader recently came out with a video stating that he is going to play this fight smart and use his wrestling against Rampage, something that he has a clear cut advantage over Rampage in. Also something we have to factor in is Rampage’s love for the Japanese fans, Rampage never stops talking about how much he loves to fight in front of the Japanese fans, he loves them so much, blah blah blah. I really don’t think that Bader cares, Bader is going to outwrestle Rampage en route to a unanimous decision victory = Bader by unanimous decision.

Cheick Kongo vs. Mark Hunt: I have to be frank, I am amazed that not only has Hunt had more than one fight in the UFC, but that he has even made it to the heavyweight gatekeeper, Cheick Kongo. Hunt’s ground game has looked extremely improved with his win over Ben Rothwell, I mean, he almost beat a ground specialist with an armbar. I believe that Kongo knows the fact that Hunt’s standup is extremely dangerous and that he is going to take him to the ground and ground and pound to a unanimous decision victory = Kongo by unanimous decision.

Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Jake Shields: What ever happened with Akiyama? He was really good outside the UFC, enters the UFC and is a piece of crap? The same thing happened with Jake Shields. It’s really hard to believe that looking at this fight that whoever loses this will be cut by the UFC. It really should be a number one contenders fight. Anyway, Shields should get this fight to the ground as quick as possible and submit him, I can also see Akiyama gassing himself out pretty quickly, his cardio is not very good = Shields by 2nd round submission (choke).

Tim Boetsch vs. Yushin Okami: Tim Boetsch is a hightly underrated fighter but Okami just fought for the title against Anderson Silva, Boetsch has nothing for Okami in this one = Okami by 2nd round TKO.

Hatsu Hioki and Bart Palaszewski: No one ever said anything about it but I think this fight may be a number one contenders featherweight matchup. Hioki tries to say in his close win over Roop that Japanese MMA is still alive and well. That just isn’t true. Hioki is really the last chance that Japanese MMA has. Palaszewski is not an easy fight. He destroyed Tyson Griffin in a stunning upset. Hioki’s only chance at winning this fight is getting it to the ground as quickly and going for the sub. If he keeps it on the feet, he will be KO’d quick = Hioki by 1st round submission. My pick for SOTN!

Joe Lauzon vs. Anthony Pettis: I really like Joe Lauzon and he is really hard to bet against. Pettis has not looked very good since his entrance into the UFC. He lost a decision to Clay Guida and a split decision over Jeremy Stephens. Lauzon destroyed Melvin Guillard in 47 seconds, one of the biggest upsets that year, proving that you should never count him out. They are both very well rounded fighters but I’m going to go with Lauzon, he’s just too hard to bet against = Lauzon by 2nd round submission (choke).

Prelims
Takanori Gomi vs. Eiji Mitsuoka = Gomi by split decision.
Vaughan Lee vs. Norifumi "Kid" Yamamoto = Yamamoto by 2nd round KO. My pick for KOOTN!
Steve Cantwell vs. Riki Fukuda = Fukuda by split decision.
Chris Cariaso vs. Takeya Mizugaki = Mizugaki by 2nd round TKO.
Issei Tamura vs. Tiequan Zhang = Tamura by unanimous decision.

UFC on Fuel 1: Ellenberger vs. Sanchez Predictions

Sam’s Picks

Main Card

Jake Ellenberger vs. Diego Sanchez: Ellenberger is a beast. Sanchez is a beast. This makes for an awesome fight, both these guys love to slug it out and go for the KO. Ellenberger wants to get a second shot at Condit so bad that I think that just adds to fire along with this taking place in his hometown of Omaha. Ever since Sanchez has moved back up to welterweight, he has looked pretty solid after his fight with John Hathaway. I believe that Ellenberger is going to have to finish it to win, he doesn’t have the best cardio, so I think it will be close up until Ellenberger finishes it = Ellenberger by 2nd round TKO. My pick for FOTN!

Stefan Struve vs. Dave Herman: “Pee Wee” versus the “Skyscraper”. Both of these guys have a lot of potential to be future title challengers but Struve has proven to not have the best chin. Herman has very unorthodox but also very effective standup. Struve has the clear grappling advantage and Herman with the standup, I think I have to go with the standup. It’s going to be exciting but Herman is going to finish this fight = Herman by 1st round TKO. My pick for KOOTN!

Aaron Simpson vs. Ronny Markes: This fight is very hard to pick. They are very equal but Simpson has the better wrestling credentials but Markes is extremely powerful. I’m going to go with the underdog in this fight because he dominated a guy who is known to be extremely powerful = Markes by split decision.

Philip de Fries vs. Stipe Miocic: Miocic is a huge prospect that has all the credentials to be a future title challenger. Fries, is much of the same. This fight is another hard to call because they both have unlimited potential but I think that Miocic will be able to tap into his earlier, but look out for these guys to become big names in the next two years = Miocic by split decision.

T.J. Dillashaw vs. Walel Watson: Both of these guys have good standup but also very different. TJ is a boxer who favors the uppercut while Watson is a muay thai specialist that favors the clinch and leg kicks. For bantamweight, Watson is oddly large with a huge reach advantage over most of the 135ers. I think that he will be able to use his reach and leg kicks to cruise towards a unanimous decision victory = Watson by unanimous decision.

Ivan Menjivar vs. John Albert: This is an interesting fight. A hardened veteran versus a pretty huge prospect. I think that Menjivar is just a little too fast and seasoned to lose to the much larger Albert = Menjivar by 3rd round submission. My pick for SOTN! 

Prelims

Jonathan Brookins vs. Vagner Rocha = Brookins by split decision.
Buddy Roberts vs. Sean Loeffler = Loeffler by unanimous decision.
Anton Kuivanen vs. Justin Salas = Kuivanen by split decision.
Bernardo Magalhaes vs. Tim Means = Magalhaes by 2nd round submission.

Dave’s Picks

Main Card

Jake Ellenberger vs. Diego Sanzhez: This will be such a great fight. Both of these guys are face paced monsters. However, I think Jake is the perfect person to handle Diego. In fact I think Jake will take this rather easily. Jake will be much stronger and have more punching power plus I think he will have the wrestling advantage. I see Jake slamming Diego either against the cage on the mat and punching and grinding out an easy win. = Jake by unanimous decision. My Pick for Fight of the Night!

Dave Herman vs. Stefan Struve: Sam and the betting line are picking Herman but I am not. I actually talked to Struve myself about this fight. He said that during his UFC career he hasn’t always fought super smart but this time he will. Just like he did against Barry. He got it to the mat and finished it. I see a similar result. I see Struve getting it to the ground somehow and submitting Herman. Either way this fight will most likely not  go the distance. = Struve by submission in round 2. My Pick for Submission of the Night!

Ronny Markes vs. Aaron Simpson: I’m excited for this fight. I think this will be Ronny’s coming out party. I see Aaron Simpson getting out muscled and punished. I like Simpson but this fight will prove he is a gate keeper and Ronny has a huge future. = Ronny by unanimous decision.

Philip de Fries vs. Stipe Miocic: I think both these guys have great futures but Miocic will take this one in devastating fashion. I see Fries trying to go for a sloppy takedown and getting his head kicked off. Fries only chance is to get this to the ground ASAP or he will get KOed. = Stipe Miocic by TKO in round 1. My Pick for KO of the Night!

Prelims

T.J. Dillashaw vs. Walel Watson: Dillashaw by split decision.

Jonathan Brookins vs. Vagner Rocha: Brookins by unanimous decision.

John Albert vs. Ivan Menjivar: Ivan by submission in round 2.

Bernardo Magalhaes vs. Tim Means: Bernardo by split decision.

Sean Loeffler vs. Buddy Roberts: Roberts by split decision.

Anton Kuivanen vs. Justin Salas: Anton by split decision.

UFC 143: Diaz vs. Condit Predictions

Sam’s Picks

Main Card

Carlos Condit vs. Nick Diaz: What a fight to start the month of love. This is one of the best fights that Joe Silva has ever put together so far in his job at the UFC. These guys are such a perfect match, that I don’t see this fight being finished. They both have a very solid ground game, dangerous standup, very good cardio, and most of all, heart. A tremendous amount of heart. They never give up. Now when they seem equal in talent, we have to look closer within those talents. Condit has the better power while Diaz has the technique and speed without very much power. Both the Diaz’s have very slick Jiu-Jitsu while Condit has the crushing submission skills. This fight is so close but I think that Diaz has the slightest advantage over each category, especially cardio = Diaz by split decision. My pick for FOTN!

Roy Nelson vs. Fabricio Werdum: This one is an easier one for who has the advantage where. Fabrisio Werdum has in the top 5 best Jiu-Jitsu skills in all of MMA. Roy Nelson, on the other hand, is much more well rounded. Nelson has powerful standup and Werdum standup, to say the least, isn’t so good. If Werdum can get it to the ground, I think he’ll win. Be looking for him to be challenging for the title later in 2013 = Werdum by 2nd round submission (arm). My pick for SOTN!

Josh Koscheck vs. Mike Pierce: Believe it or not, I am really not giving Koscheck a chance in this fight. Mike Pierce has the better standup and has been able to utilize his wrestling in MMA better than Koscheck. Not only is Koscheck not as good as people make him out to be, but he has been KO’d before by someone with not very good standup. Pierce has only lost 4 times, two of them being unanimous decision losses to Mark Munoz and Jon Fitch, and one being a split decision loss to Johnny Hendricks. Pierce is a solid competitor and I see him winning this fight = Pierce by unanimous decision.

Renan Barao vs. Scott Jorgenson: This fight is a dream bantamweight matchup. Barao easily dispatched one of the top contenders in Brad Pickett in Pickett’s hometown. Not only that, but he also hasn’t lost since his MMA debut and his record is 27-1. His standup is powerful and his ground game is slick. I love Jorgenson but Barao has all the works to be one of the best in the world = Barao by 2nd round TKO. My pick for FOTN and KOOTN!

Ed Herman vs. Clifford Starks: Starks may be a tremendous athlete with a lot of potential but he hasn’t proved himself to be with some of the best mid-tier fighters like Ed Herman. Herman is scary well rounded and will easily dispatch of Starks = Herman by 1st round submission (choke).

Prelims

Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier = Poirier by 1st round TKO.

Henry Martinez vs. Matt Riddle = Martinez by split decision.

Alex Caceres vs. Edwin Figueroa = Figueroa by 2nd round submission (choke).

Matt Brown vs. Chris Cope = Brown by 1st round TKO.

Dan Stittgen vs. Stephen Thompson = Stittgen by 1st round submission (choke).

Rafael Natal vs. Michael Kuiper = Kuiper by split decision

Dave’s Picks

Main Card

Carlos Condit vs. Nick Diaz: This one is a five round war for the Interim Welterweight Championship of the world! Winner of this is guaranteed a shot at GSP. This fight is an easy pick for possible fight of the year. Both of these guys are very similar. They both are the same height, same reach, pretty much same age, very similar fighting styles and both are absurdly well-rounded. And they both fight without fear. This is going to be amazing! Both have been on fire and destroying high level competition. This fight is so hard to pick because they are very equal in my eyes. However, I think Diaz has just a little tiny bit better boxing when it comes to technique. Plus I just saw that Matt Hughes, my favorite fighter, said the same thing!!= Diaz by split decision. My Pick for Fight of the Night!

Roy Nelson vs. Fabricio Werdum: this fight could either be awesome or boring as heck. Either way it’s pretty important to the heavyweight division. Roy Nelson recently KOed Cro Cop and Werdum is coming over from Strikeforce where he went 3-1 and his only loss was to Overeem. The main factor in this fight is that Nelson has looked really bad in his last 3 fights. He got destroyed by Mir and Dos Santos and before he KOed Cro Cop, Nelson looked pretty bad. I see this fight being equal on the feet and at some point it goes to the ground and there we will see Werdum’s mastery of BJJ = Werdum by submission in round 2. My Pick for Submission of the Night!

Josh Koscheck vs. Mike Pierce: Although Pierce’s wrestling isn’t on the same level as Koscheck’s I still see them deciding to cancel the grappling out and going for a standup battle. Both of them don’t have very technical boxing but they both have decent power; with Koscheck having the proven KO power advantage. Pierce’s best strategy is to make this a dirty boxing match with Kos pressed up against the fence. Kos needs to either take him down and be on top or keep it standing and land bombs from a distance. This one could be closer than most people think but I’m going with the more proven guy = Koscheck by unanimous decision.

Renan Barao vs. Scott Jorgensen: This fight could also be picked as an early favorite to be fight of the year. Both these guys are very well rounded and punch so hard that its insane.  I have met Scott 3 times and every time he was an absolute gentleman and if you add how much I love watching him fight you can be he is one of my favorite fighters. Barao has been looking virtually untouchable. He is undefeated in 27 straight fights! He hasn’t lost since 2005! But overall the most impressive factor was that he destroyed Brad Pickett like it was nothing. This fight could go either way but I feel safer with this one = Barao by unanimous decision.

Ed Herman vs. Clifford Starks: The rest of this card, including this fight, is bizarre. So many injuries changed things up but anyway. This fight should be pretty one sided. Starks hasn’t faced anyone on Herman’s level. As long as Herman stays healthy he should take this. = Herman by submission in the 2^nd round.

Prelims

Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier: Poirier by KO in round 1.

Henry Martinez vs. Matt Riddle: Riddle by split decision.

Alex Caceres vs. Edwin Figueroa: Alex by split deicison.

Matt Brown vs. Chris Cope: Brown by TKO in round 1.

Dan Stittgen vs. Stephen Thompson: Thompson by unanimous decision.

Rafael Natal vs. Michael Kuiper: Natal by unanimous decision.

DeRose's Picks
Main Card
Condit by decision
Roy Nelson by decision
Josh Koscheck by ko
Renan Barao by decision
Ed Herman by decision
Prelims
Dustin Poirtier by ko
Edwin Figueroa by submissiion
Matt Brown by decision
Matthew Riddle by decision
michael kuiper by ko

Enjoy the fights and the Super Bowl!!