UFC 155: Dos Santos vs. Velasquez Prelim Recap

Chris Cariaso vs. John Moraga: In a division as shallow as the flyweight division, two finishes in a row is mighty impressive. John Moraga has now won two fights in a row, one by knockout and one by submission. The first two rounds of this fight were a bit slow, more of a feeling out process than anything. Cariaso was throwing a lot of left head kicks and Moraga would try to counter it. That is really the story of the first two rounds. But Moraga came into the third with some urgency. Cariaso clinched and jumped into a modified guillotine. Moraga finished him shortly thereafter.

Possible matchups for Moraga: This huge win now puts Moraga at least one win away from a title shot. Ian McCall and Joseph Benavidez are fighting at UFC 156 and the winner of that should fight Moraga in a number one contender bout.

Possible matchups for Cariaso: Cariaso was looking good up until he got caught in the guillotine. I would like to see him fight the winner of Phil Harris and Ulysses Gomez. All three of these guys are very talented but Harris vs. Gomez is a potential loser goes home bout.

Max Holloway vs. Leonard Garcia: This fight was…well… a Leonard Garcia fight. He was overly aggressive while being countered down the middle. He did fight with a lot more technique though, as he used a lot more head movement and more straight punches than usual. Holloway proved to be the more technical and out countered him throughout. Many people are saying that Garcia got robbed but you have to look at it this way: the first could have gone either way, the second was much of the same but everyone is leaning towards Garcia, and Holloway won the third. In other words, it could have gone either way, therefore it wasn’t a robbery. But robbery or not, Leonard Garcia is going to be released from the UFC.

Possible matchups for Holloway: Though this is a win over a pretty big name in Leonard Garcia for Max Holloway, it’s kind of a setback to be totally honest. He was a big favorite heading in but almost lost against a guy whose striking is far inferior to his in many ways. I don’t think Holloway is just yet ready for a step up so I would like to see him fight another up and comer. That fighter is Rony Jason, who is coming off of his TKO win over Sam Sicilia.

Phil de Fries vs. Todd Duffee: This fight went much like I envisioned: Duffee being aggressive and getting the finish early. He clipped Phil early but ended up being takedown and nearly finished. De Fries had him against the cage and was landing several very solid shots to the temple, but right after that, Duffee finished him off quick. There is no doubt that Duffee has a lot of power.

Possible matchups for Duffee: This now makes Duffee 2-1 in the UFC and right back on track. I have a feeling that he is going to be put on the fast track towards a title shot by the UFC. His knockout power and entertaining fighting style can make him a star in the mainstream spotlight. Pat Barry is another fighter that has similar fighting style: extremely powerful and entertaining. And he just happens to be coming off of a KO of the year candidate over Shane Del Rosario.

Possible matchups for De Fries: Though this loss only makes de Fries 2-2 in the UFC, his two losses are both via early KO losses. He should be put in a loser goes home bout next with the loser of Shawn Jordan vs. Mike Russow.

Michael Johnson vs. Myles Jury: Right from the start, this fight was Myles Jury. Many people went in thinking that this fight was going to be a mismatch, including myself. Jury was just the better fighter. He controlled him everywhere the fight went, especially on the ground; getting takedowns and battering him with ground and pound. That’s what I envisioned Michael Johnson doing. Going into this fight, Johnson was considered to be a future title contender and many now believe that Jury took his position.

Possible matchups for Jury: With this huge win over Johnson, this launches Jury up the rankings. I was calling for a big name for Johnson but instead he got owned by lesser known prospect in Jury. Mac Danzig is coming off of a very close decision loss to Takanori Gomi, so I think he should fight Jury for either a rebound fight for Danzig or a big stepping stone for Jury.

Possible matchups for Johnson: This was a devastating loss for the Blackzilian product. It will certainly push him down the ladder quite a bit. I’d like to see him fight guy for a rebound like Fabricio Camoes, who is coming off of a decision loss to Melvin Guillard.

Jamie Varner vs. Melvin Gulliard: This fight was exactly as many expected: a barnburner from beginning to end with a great scrambles on the ground. Guillard opened the fight with a bunch of very solid legkicks but Varner ended up countering them with a nasty combo that almost knocked Guillard out. Varner ended up fighting smarter in the second round though, as he began to wrestle with Melvin, who is known to have a very poor ground game. It was a back and forth second round but Varner took it to the ground again. In the third round, Varner fought smart again and out-grappled Guillard. At one point, Varner did a reversed atomic bomb right on Guillard’s head. Yeah, it’s a tad hard to describe in words. It was a generally easy 30-27 for Varner and one of the judges gave it 30-27 to Guillard… Anyway, on to the matchups.

Possible matchups for Varner: This was an absolutely huge win for Varner. Guillard has a lot of name value so I want Varner to fight a top-10 or top-15 opponent again. I would like to see him fight the loser between Cerrone and Pettis. Cerrone and he have a huge rivalry that goes way back to 2009 at WEC 38. And Pettis vs. Varner would be an instant Fight of the Night.

Possible matchups for Guillard: It’s a shame that Guillard may never actually reach the greatness in which we all thought he could one day reach. I would like to see him fight another guy who is coming off of a decision loss like Mark Bocek. It could go either way with a KO from Guillard or a submission from Bocek.

Erik Perez vs. Byron Bloodworth: Did anyone expect any different? Perez came right out and landed shots, pushing Bloodworth against the cage. After landing a nasty knee to the body and dropping Bloodworth, Perez swarmed and finished him soon after. This makes Bloodworth 0-2 with two TKO losses in the UFC. He’s not UFC quality.

Possible matchups for Perez: There were reasons as to why Perez was so hyped going into his fight and he showed it in his win over Bloodworth. I would like to see him fight the winner between Francisco Rivera and Edwin Figueroa. The winner would deserve a top-10 opponent.

Brad Pickett vs. Eddie Wineland: From beginning to end, Eddie Wineland put on a striking clinic over Brad Pickett, and I have to admit, I was quite surprised. Wineland was just countering and landing with right hands the whole fight, battering Pickett’s face. He looked fantastic, much like his last win over Scotty Jorgensen.

Possible matchups for Wineland: Heading into this bout, there were very big title implications. Wineland dominated this fight so I would like to see him fight the winner of Renan Barao and Michael McDonald. With the technique and power that he brings to the table, he will be a handful for either fighter.

Possible matchups for Pickett: Poor Brad Pickett. He gets to a number one contender match, and loses. This has happened at least two or three times to him now. If he wants to make it back into contention, he should fight Mike Easton. A win over Easton could send him right back into contention.

CR's 2012 MMA Awards!

 We are doing an end of the year award post for this amazing year of MMA in 2012. We cover a variety of subjects and give you our take on what was the best of the best. Let us know your choices in the comments section below!

Sam’s Awards

Fighter of the Year – Ronda Rousey: MMA had a rocky 2012, this is something that the UFC will try to change in in the year 2013. But when men’s MMA had a rocky year, women’s MMA had the best year in its history and it’s all due to one women: Ronda Rousey. Being a former Olympic bronze medalist, she smoothly made her transition into MMA with seven first round armbar finishes heading into 2012. After snapping Miesha Tate’s arm in half and doing much of the same to Sarah Kaufman in her first title defense, Rousey became a star. Her natural sex appeal, aggressive personality, and dominant fighting style put women’s MMA in the mainstream light. With what Rousey has done in only 365 days is what makes her the Fighter of the Year.

Fight of the Year – Chan Sung Jung def. Dustin Poirier via D’Arce choke at 1:07 of round 4: The equation for a fight of the year candidate consists of a back and forth brawl, people being dropped, submission attempts, and an exhilarating finish. This fight had that and a little more.  They slugged it on the feet, Jung went for multiple submissions in the second with almost getting a few, and ended up finishing Poirier with Poirier’s favorite technique. There was only one other fight that could be considered better and Dave picked it.

Round of the Year – Dustin Poirier def. Jonathan Brookins via D’Arce choke at 4:15 of round 1: Apparently Poirier loves to be in amazing fights. After he lost in his Fight of the Year bout against Jung, he was looking for a rebound fight against TUF winner, Jonathan Brookins. Brookins came out strong and aggressive, pushing Poirier against the fence and swinging for the fences. Poirier returned and eventually caught Brookins, dropping him into a sloppy takedown attempt. Poirier countered with a D’Arce choke and finished him off.

Submission of the Year – Ronda Rousey def. Miesha Tate via armbar at 4:27 of round 1: When picking a submission or knockout of the year, it will typically be a comeback win, the first of its kind, or a win with huge implications. This is the third, but we didn’t know it at the time. Rousey won the fight, but the huge explosion for women’s MMA is what causes this win to be my submission of the year. Also the arm snapping didn't hurt, well, except Miesha Tate.

KO of the Year – Edson Barboza def. Terry Etim via KO (Spinning wheel kick) at 2:02 of round 3: Did you really expect anything else? This knockout was insane. I couldn’t stop watching it for weeks. Remember the three different things a “Finish Of the Year” would need? This was the first of its kind. No one has ever knocked anyone out with a spinning wheel kick in the UFC. And Etim just happened to be frozen in time while falling unconscious.

Upset of the Year – Jamie Varner def. Edson Barboza via TKO (punches) at 3:23 of round 1: Varner’s return was a very unexpected surprise but he was supposed to be absolutely blasted by Edson Barboza, who was coming off his win over Terry Etim. Varner was about a 5-1 underdog in the betting lines heading in, but an even bigger one in people’s opinions. Varner bum rushed him and easily finished him in the first round.

Event of the Year – UFC 144: With a card filled with brutal knockouts, awesome submissions, stunning upsets, insane comebacks, and all out wars, this card was absolutely nuts. Sure there were one or two fights that weren’t that great but seriously this card was one of the best in UFC history.

Comeback of the Year – Tim Boetsch def. Yushin Okami via TKO (punches) at 0:54 of round 3: Heading into this fight, Boetsch was meant to be a rebound win for Okami, who was coming off of his failed title shot. Okami was well on his way to a possible 30-26 or 29-27 decision win but Boetsch came out into the third round a different man. He completely demolished Okami in seconds into the third round, pulling off one of the best comebacks of all time and best upsets of the year.

Prospect of the Year – Max Holloway: At only 21 years old, Max Holloway has already amassed a 2-1 record in the UFC. He possesses some of the most technical striking in the UFC’s featherweight division. His last two wins over Justin Lawrence and Pat Schilling are just the beginning of what this young prospect can do.

Most Improved Fighter – Matt Brown: Heading into 2012, Matt Brown was on the brink of being released from the UFC. He was 1-4 with all his losses being submissions in the second round. His New Year resolution was apparently to become a better fighter, and boy did he succeed at that. He ended up going 4-0 in 2012 with two big upsets and three T/KO finishes. That is the definition of improved.

Moment of the Year – Jose Aldo Celebrating with Brazilian Crowd: At UFC 142 in Brazil, the featherweight champion Jose Aldo capped off the night with a first round KO win over Chad Mendes. After his win, he ran into the wild crowd. At first, I was worried because it seemed as though he was being mauled. But then he was put upon the shoulders of a fan and was carried while swinging the Brazilian flag. It was a very emotional and amazing scene.

Story of the Year – UFC 149 Injury Bug: Not only is this the story of the year because it’s insane, but because it’s extremely comical. The amount of injuries that this card sustained is absolutely mindboggling. I will give you a quick rundown of what happened: Bisping was replaced by Lombard against Boetsch. Yoshihiro Akiyama was supposed to fight Thiago Alves but pulled out, Siyar Bahadurzada filled in. Alves pulled out and Chris Clements filled in. Bahadurzada pulled out and Matt Riddle filled in. Thiago Silva was supposed to fight Shogun but pulled out and Shogun left the card to fight Brandon Vera later on. Jose Aldo, originally headlining against Erik Koch, pulled out and Urijah Faber and Renan Barao ended up headlining after Dominick Cruz pulled out of his fight with Faber. George Roop was supposed to fight Antonio Carvalho but pulled out and Daniel Pineda filled in. Big Nog, originally fighting Cheick Kongo, was still healing from his broken arm he got from Frank Mir. And last but not least, Claude Patrick was going to fight James Head but pulled out and Brian Ebersole filled in. It not only was terrible but led to one of the worst cards in MMA history.

Dave’s Awards

Fighter of the Year – Matt Brown: Yes, Matt “The Immortal” Brown. Brown went 4-0 with 3 of those being finished by (T)KO. He destroyed one of the most highly touted prospects in MMA in Stephen Thompson. And put a screeching halt to Mike Swick’s comeback ride. Brown not only did all of this in a dominating fashion but also made each fight incredibly fun to watch. Matt Brown is why I watch MMA. He is talented and fun to watch. And in 2012 Matt Brown was the best.

Fight of the Year – Joe Lauzon def. Jamie Varner via triangle choke at 2:44 of Round 3: This fight was freaking insane! Everyone watching this around me lost their minds on at least 5 different times. It was a back-and-forth affair that ended with a fantastic scramble that summed up the fight as a whole and got Lauzon back in the win column.

Round of the Year – Ivan Menjivar def. John Albert via RNC at 3:45 of Round 1: This round was my favorite because I was certain it was over 2 times and each time the other guy pulled it out somehow. Albert came at Menjivar like a wild animal. Albert was destroying him but Menjivar, the wily vet, kept his cool and somehow came back and won in one of the most fun fights you’ll ever see.

Submission of the Year – Wolfgang Janssen def. Aaron Armstrong via Flying Reverse Triangle at 1:57 of Round 2: This fight didn’t mean much and it was in a small promotion but it is one of the most amazing technical grappling maneuvers I have ever seen. He didn’t get lucky in a scramble and run with it. Janssen was looking for it and got it. Please go watch it on YouTube NOW!

KO of the Year – Johny Hendricks def. Martin Kampmann via KO at :46 of Round 1: Both of these guys had a ton of steam coming into this fight and it lived up to the hype. Most people thought Hendricks would outwrestle Kampmann but he instantly put a big left hand on Kampmann and Kampmann went flying back like a punch from Superman in a comic book. 46 seconds in and we found the scariest man at 170. Watch out GSP!

Upset of the Year – Tim Boetsch def. Yushin Okami via TKO at :54 of Round 3: This fight was supposed to be a one sided beating, and for 2 rounds, it was. Most people thought Okami would just throw Boetsch around and blanket him, and for 2 rounds, he did. But then Boetsch decided to take Okami’s head off and he did. Incredible.

Event – UFC 152: Jones vs. Belfort: I’m a little biased because I was there close to the action but the action was nonstop during this one. The night started out with 3 straight 1^st round finishes. Then there was Grant vs. Dunham which could have been Fight of the Year. Then Vinny Magalhaes’ submission over Igor Pokrajac was a thing of beauty. A few fun fights later and you get two amazing title fights! The first ever Flyweight Title fight which was a back-and-forth technical battle and then Jon Jones defended his light heavyweight title against legend Vitor Belfort. That fight alone was amazing. All in all it was the best time I had watching MMA this year.

Comeback of the Year- Martin Kampmann def. Jake Ellenberger via TKO at 1:40 of Round 2: I thought Jake was going to destroy Martin. And he was well on his way to doing so until Martin somehow landed a knee out of nowhere that sent Jake to the ground in a heap. I was speechless at the time. I truly felt that Ellenberger would easily win that fight, but you can't ever count out Kampmann.

Prospect of the Year – Erik Perez: Perez is only 23 years old, is 2-0 in the UFC and both of those wins came against quality opponents. Not only that, but both of those wins ended in the first round. On top of all of this, he trains at Jackson’s camp. This kid has a huge chance to do something amazing at 135 pounds.

Most Improved Fighter – Cub Swanson: Cub has always been good but if you were to tell me a year ago he would go 3-0 against great competition and all of those wins coming by way of KO, I would think you’re nuts. He got manhandled by Chad Mendes, barely won against Mackens Semerzier and then got destroyed by Ricardo Lamas. But Cub went on a rampage in 2012 and most recently destroyed fellow rising star, Charles Oliveira in just under 3 minutes. The sky is the limit for Cub.

Moment of the Year – Vitor Belfort’s armbar attempt on Jon Jones at UFC 152: This fight was a joke to begin with. You had the scariest man alive, Jon Jones, taking on aging and undersized Belfort squaring off on short notice. It was ridiculous and you could tell from the ring of the bell that Jones was going to destroy Belfort. Jones took Belfort down immediately and started to land vicious elbows. But then out of nowhere, Belfort locks on an armbar that made Jones wince in pain and the Air Canada Centre arena erupted in a noise like no other. I’m a huge Jones fan and even I wanted to see Belfort pull it off. It was incredible and even though Jones defended it off, it was an amazing moment in MMA history.

Story of the Year – Women’s MMA makes it to the UFC: This was a huge moment for MMA history as women will now be able to fight under the UFC banner. It was a long time coming and I am so glad it has happened. I just hope that they sign a ton of fighters and handle the women’s divisions better than they have handled the 145, 135 and 125 divisions for men. Dana needs to keep them off of Facebook and feature them often. I can’t wait  for this chapter in UFC’s history to begin.

UFC 155: Dos Santos vs. Velasquez Predictions

Sam’s Picks

Main Card

Junior dos Santos vs. Cain Velasquez: Man is this card insanely stacked. I seriously cannot wait for every single fight on this card. But for the main event, I’m having a lot of trouble picking this one. Well, I know who I’m going with but I’m not all that confident. Following their first fight on the first card on Fox, I felt as though dos Santos would be the Anderson Silva of the heavyweight division, but after Cain’s last fight with Bigfoot Silva, I don’t know. We all know that Velasquez came into their first fight with a really bad knee injury, but he still didn’t ever go in for the takedown, except one measly attempt. Junior’s takedown defense is insanely good; he hasn’t been taken down his whole UFC career. Cain has been saying that he will be going for the takedowns, which is a good thing to know, but how much has JDS’ already amazing takedown defense improved since their first encounter? How will JDS’ submission game look if Cain does get him to the ground? There are so many unknown variables heading into this main event, but I’m sticking with the man I went with back in November of last year = JDS via 3rd round KO. My pick for KOOTN!

Jim Miller vs. Joe Lauzon: If you’re looking for a matchup that is bound for Fight of the Year, this is your fight. Believe it or not, but Lauzon has the most post-fight bonuses in UFC history. He has even more than Anderson Silva. Miller is a similar fighter in the fact that he always puts on great fights and is one of the toughest fighters in the UFC. Lauzon, who is coming off of a Fight of the Year candidate win over Jamie Varner, will always be looking for the submission. Miller is very well rounded, but is almost impossible to submit. Miller will be the stronger fighter and have the better striking. Miller is the man to go with = Miller via unanimous decision. My 3^rd pick for FOTN!

Tim Boetsch vs. Costa Philippou: This fight is another difficult one to predict. Now, I’m going to be completely honest, Tim Boetsch is not an elite fighter. His skills are mediocre, there’s no two ways about it. Costa has elite boxing, though many would probably disagree. Boetsch, though, has been showing crazy luck in his last fights with Okami and Lombard, with catching Okami and having Lombard come in injured. For Costa, after his debut against Nick Catone (which he took on very short notice), he has been lighting up the middleweight’s mid-tier fighters. It’s now time for his step up and he is going to make the most of it with superior striking and takedown defense = Philippou via unanimous decision.

Yushin Okami vs. Alan Belcher: Speaking of Yushin Okami, he will be re-matching Alan Belcher, looking to make it 2-0. The problem with that is Belcher is a completely different fighter since their first encounter. Ever since his horrible almost-career-ending injury, Belcher has been absolutely red hot, running through both Jason MacDonald and Rousimar Palhares. Okami has been a tad cold lately though, losing to Anderson Silva and Boetsch and then looking very lackluster against Buddy Roberts. Not a lot of people have been saying it but Okami’s career could be reaching its end while Belcher is just piquing. Belcher is the guy to go with = Belcher via 2^nd round TKO.

Chris Leben vs. Derek Brunson: I haven’t seen the betting lines for this one, but I know that it’s going to be almost comically in favor for Leben. Don’t be mistaken though, Brunson has the fighting style to beat Leben: strong wrestling and smothering attack. The problem is the fact that Brunson has a questionable chin, and that isn’t something you want in a fight with Leben. I want to go with Brunson, but Leben is obviously the safer pick = Leben via 1^st round KO.

Prelims

Brad Pickett vs. Eddie Wineland: BARNBURNER ALERT - This is the type of fight that makes me love Joe Silva on a creepy level. Brad Pickett has never been in a boring fight and Wineland is very similar and is looking to make a resurgence in his career. I’m guessing that a majority of this fight will take place on the feet, which will make it a speed vs. power striking match. Wineland has some of the best power at bantamweight and Pickett is lightning fast. Wineland has shown that he has trouble with speed in his fights with Urijah Faber and Joseph Benavidez. Speed is what is going to make a difference in this fight = Pickett via split decision. My 1^st pick for FOTN!

Erik Perez vs. Byron Bloodworth: This is a gimme fight for Perez. The UFC sees a ton of potential in him and they are going to make him 3-0 in the Octagon = Perez via 1^st round submission.

Jamie Varner vs. Melvin Guillard: Oh dear lord am I looking forward to this fight. Ever since Varner’s return to the UFC, he has looked great despite his loss to Lauzon, where he even had a lot of good moments. Guillard is the type of fighter that has shown tons of greatness in his fights but his ground game has always been his downfall. Varner has a great ground game and after an incredible slugfest, Varner will submit him with Guillard’s arch nemesis = Varner via 2nd round RNC. My 2^nd pick for FOTN! My pick for SOTN!

Michael Johnson vs. Myles Jury: I don’t like this fight for two reasons. First, I wanted a big step up for Johnson after his last knockout win over Danny Castillo. Second, Jury has a ton of potential and this is not a good fight for him. Johnson is too big and strong. They are both very well rounded fighters but Johnson is better in all facets of MMA = Johnson via unanimous decision.

Phil de Fries vs. Todd Duffee: Ah, the return of the Duffman. I was both very surprised and extremely happy to hear of his return, but he hasn’t exactly been given an easy task. De Fries is a good fighter and is well rounded, but he has a questionable chin. Duffee has insane power and I see him finishing this fight early = Duffee via 1^st round KO.

John Moraga vs. Chris Cariaso: The fact that this fight is on Facebook prelims makes me enraged. This is a potential number one contender match! What is the UFC doing making this so basically no one watches it? Moraga is coming off of a stunning upset first round KO over Ulysses Gomez and Cariaso is coming off of a very dominant decision win over Josh Ferguson. Moraga is mainly known for his wrestling as he is NCAA wrestling but looked devastating in the standup game against Gomez. Cariaso is hard to describe. I can’t tell if he is really well rounded or is just flat out mediocre in all facets of MMA. But I’m with the guy who I personally think has the best chance of defeating Demetrious Johnson = Moraga via unanimous decision.

Max Holloway vs. Leonard Garcia: Want to know the best way on how to beat Leonard Garcia? Footwork and striking down the pipe. Holloway has some of the most technical boxing in the UFC’s featherweight division while Leonard is the complete opposite. Saying that he throws fastballs is an understatement. Holloway will pick him apart and will show the world that is a future champion = Holloway via unanimous decision.

Dave’s Picks

Main Card

Junior dos Santos vs. Cain Velasquez: Who doesn’t want to see this fight? You would have to be dead not to get excited. This fight, just like the first one, could go two ways:  JDS KO’s Cain or Cain out-grapples JDS for a decision win. I think the first scenario is more likely because it already happened and JDS has never been taken down…EVER. I would not be shocked if Cain won because his wrestling is top notch but the safer pick here is JDS. = JDS by TKO in round 2. My Pick for KO of the Night!

Jim Miller vs. Joe Lauzon: Another amazing fight. Lauzon’s submission game is as deadly as they come but his cardio, striking, and wrestling are way beneath Miller’s level. Miller also has great submissions and submission defense along with everything else. I see Miller avoiding the takedowns and submissions and out striking Lauzon to a decision. Don’t blink for this one. = Miller by unanimous decision. My Pick for Fight of the Night!

Tim Boetsch vs. Constantinos Philippou: This is the hardest fight to pick for me. Boetsch has been on a tear defeating top notch fighters and Philippou has been beating mid-tier guys. However, Boetsch in reality is really a mid-tier guy. Philippou is good at getting people to fight his fight. Not sure who will win this won but it should be fun to watch. = Boetsch by split decision.

Yushin Okami vs. Alan Belcher: This fight should be very interesting. Okami has looked terrible as of late. He was doing well against Boetsch but got sloppy and was finished. Belcher’s striking is far above Boetsch’s and I believe will be the deciding factor. Belcher will be able to easily out-strike Okami. Okami will have the better wrestling but Belcher grappling defense should prove to be good enough to still defeat Okami handily. Watch for Belcher to dominate and then callout Anderson Silva in his post-fight interview. = Belcher by TKO in round 2.

Chris Leben vs. Derek Brunson: Can’t believe this fight made it on the main card instead of Pickett vs. Wineland but whatever. Brunson’s chin is suspect (got KO’d by Jacare) and Leben is…well…Leben = Leben by TKO in round 1.

Prelims

Brad Pickett vs. Eddie Wineland: Oh man this fight is just too good. I like both these guys a lot. I cannot wait for this one. This will be a standup battle that will prove to be a FOTN candidate. Pickett has the better technique and Wineland probably has more power but I think Pickett also has more speed and that beats Wineland 2-1. I think this fight will be close but Pickett just has a more diverse striking game. = Pickett by unanimous decision.

Erik Perez vs. Byron Bloodworth: Perez is one of the brightest prospects in the UFC and will destroy Bloodworth. Watch for this one to end quickly = Perez by submission in round 1.

Melvin Guillard vs. Jamie Varner: Man, am I happy this fight is finally happening. I see this fight being exactly like Melvin’s fight against Jim Miller: Varner takes it to the ground and chokes him out early. Varner has the better wrestling and good enough submissions to finish Guillard without much resistance. = Varner by submission in round 1. My Pick for Submission of the Night!

Michael Johnson vs. Myles Jury: Jury is a talented kid but I don’t believe he will amount to a whole lot in the UFC. Johnson has completely turned his career around and is now a deadly fighter at 155. I see Johnson winning this fight everywhere it goes. = Johnson by unanimous decision.

Todd Duffee vs. Phil de Fries: Glad to see Duffee back in the UFC. He is a monster with potential and I hope that he can develop into the force I think he is. Phil, on the other hand, is an okay fighter. His ground game is good but his striking is atrocious. Duffee will out-strike him and deflect takedown attempts. = Duffee by unanimous decision.

John Moraga vs. Chris Cariaso: Sam is in love with Moraga but I need a little more convincing to crown him the next best thing at 125. Cariaso is a good fighter but he has trouble finishing people and that is what will kill him in the end. Moraga is a bulldozer and will eventually find an opening and will capitalize on it. = Moraga by TKO in round 3.

Max Holloway vs. Leonard Garcia: I love this fight. Holloway will be able to show the world he is ready for bigger names. Holloway’s striking is so good for his age that it doesn’t even make sense. Garcia is just too sloppy and will be eating punches coming down the pipe all night. All Holloway has to do is not play Garcia’s game and he will be fine. = Holloway by unanimous decision.

The Ultimate Fighter 16 Finale Predictions

Dave’s Picks

Main Card

Matt Mitrione vs. Roy Nelson: This fight makes me nervous. Its not the fact Mitrione took this fight on short notice because he had a fight lined up anyway. What makes me nervous is that Mitrione hasn’t fought in over a year and is coming off his first and only loss. Roy Nelson has been quite active but his results have been mixed to say the least. This fight is hard for me to pick. I like Mitrione and I think he could have a good future ahead of him and I think we have seen Nelson’s ceiling in this sport. I want Mitrione to win but the safer pick is Nelson. Nelson has the better ground game and I think is just too seasoned. I think Roy will take it to the ground and grind it out. = Nelson by unanimous decision.

Mike Ricci vs. Colton Smith: This season was really bad and I questioned why I was watching it during almost every episode but Ricci is what made me keep watching. He is the only guy who showed true promise (Jon Manley showed some too). I think Ricci is well rounded and has an amazing training camp behind him. Ricci has also beaten good fighters and his two loses are to very good fighters. Colton does not have a good resume. I think with a full camp with TriStar will be way too much for Colton who is a one trick pony…no pun intended. Colton does have a chance to win but it is holding Ricci down for 15 minutes. I think Ricci can do enough in this fight to pick up the win. = Ricci by unanimous decision.

Patrick Barry vs. Shane del Rosario: I love Pat Barry fights. Can’t wait for this one. Shane should take him down and ride out a decision while going for subs but Shane didn’t look all that great against Stipe Miocic. Barry has a great chance at knocking Shane out so cold he wakes up 5 years from now. But Shane has more ways to win. This is a close one for me but I am going with who I think is the safe pick. = SDR by submission in round 2. My Pick for Submission of the Night!

Melvin Guillard vs. Jamie Varner: Wowza. I see this fight going almost identical to Melvin vs. Jim Miller. I see Varner getting it to the ground and ending it there. But Varner needs to be careful because Melvin can KO anyone at 155. But I see Varner playing it smart and picking up a finish. = Varner by submission in round 2.

Jonathan Brookins vs. Dustin Poirier: Fight of the year candidate right here. Both of these guys are super fast and well rounded. I think Brookins has the better ground game and maybe even the more technical striking but I think the ever improving Poirier will come out guns blazing and win a close decision by controlling the pace and keeping is where he likes it. = Poirier by unanimous decision. My Pick for Fight of the Night!

Prelims

James Head vs. Mike Pyle = Pyle by unanimous decision.

Johnny Bedford vs. Marcos Vinicius = Vinicius by submission in round 1.

Rustam Khabilov vs. Vinc Pichel = Pichel by split decision.

Nick Catone vs. T.J. Waldburger = Waldburger by split decision.

Reuben Duran vs. Hugo Viana = Duran by unanimous decision.

John Cofer vs. Mike Rio = Rio by unanimous decision.

Tim Elliott vs. Jared Papazian = Elliot by split decision.

Sam's Picks

Main Card

Roy Nelson vs. Matt Mitrione: Man, I’m having trouble with who I want to pick in this fight. Nelson has yet to really impress me with anything other than his power. His wins over Schaub, Struve, and Herman are all great, but he hasn’t shown any real technique aside from a great right hand. Mitrione has tons of potential but he’s been out for so long and he’s coming off of his first loss, so I’m not sure he can hang with Nelson. I don’t think that Nelson will be able to finish him and vice versa. But the thing to take into consideration is the fact that this is a 5 round fight. Nelson’s cardio is famous for being downright awful. Mitrione is the opposite. Considering he’s a former professional football player, he is unbelievably athletic, fast, and has great cardio for a heavyweight. I see Nelson winning the first two rounds due to aggression and takedown attempts, but then Mitrione takes advantage of Nelson’s gas tank and wins the last three rounds = Mitrione via unanimous decision.

 

Mike Ricci vs. Colton Smith: Like Dave said, Ricci was the only real reason that I continued to watch the TUF season. He’s a natural lightweight and destroyed everyone at welterweight on TUF to get to the finals. Colton Smith is a very strong and talented wrestler but his standup is rather weak. Ricci is very good at all facets of MMA. Colton showed in his fight with Eddy Ellis that he is capable of being KO’d and I think that’s exactly what Ricci is going to do = Ricci via 1^st round KO. My pick for KOOTN!

 

Pat Barry vs. Shane Del Rosario: I really like this fight in terms of entertainment. Pat Barry always puts on awesome fights and Shane is no different. Barry really seems to not be a UFC caliber fighter while Shane shows a lot of promise. Shane will take him down and will finish him with strikes. It won’t fail to be an awesome fight though = Del Rosario via 3^rd round TKO. My 3^rd pick for FOTN!

 

Jamie Varner vs. Melvin Guillard: Oh dear lord am I looking forward to this fight. Ever since Varner’s return to the UFC, he has looked great despite his loss to Lauzon, where he even had a lot of good moments. Guillard is the type of fighter that has shown tons of greatness in his fights but his ground game has always been his downfall. Varner has a great ground game and after an incredible slugfest, Varner will submit him with Guillard’s arch nemesis = Varner via 2^nd round RNC. My 1^st pick for FOTN! My pick for SOTN!

 

Dustin Poirier vs. Jonathon Brookins: Both of these guys are very similar fighters; with underrated standup and a very dangerous ground game, this fight will be very close. I feel as though we have all been overrating Brookins a little too much. I mean, Oliveira completely dominated him in every aspect of MMA and a lot of people felt as though Brookins would win that, including myself. Poirier has finally changed to a really good camp in American Top Team and will be the best Dustin Poirier that we have seen = Poirier via unanimous decision.

 

Prelims

James Head vs. Mike Pyle = Pyle via unanimous decision.

Johnny Bedford vs. Marcos Vinicius = Bedford via 3^rd round TKO.

Rustam Khabilov vs. Vinc Pichel = Khabilov via unanimous decision.

Nick Catone vs. T.J Waldburger = Waldburger via unanimous decision.

Reuben Duran vs. Hugo Viana = Duran via split decision.

John Cofer vs. Mike Rio = Rio by unanimous decision.

Tim Elliott vs. Jared Papazian = Papazian via split decision. My 2^nd pick for FOTN!

UFC on Fox 4: Shogun vs. Vera Predictions

UFC on Fox 4

Sam's Picks
Main Card

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua vs. Brandon Vera: The fact that the UFC made this the main event of a Fox card is just plain bizarre. The last time that Vera won against anyone who was anywhere near close to be considered a title contender was an out of shape, just recovered from a major motorcycle accident, and nervous Frank Mir. That was back at UFC 65 and he won via first round TKO. After that, he went 4-5 and if you want to count the Thiago Silva fight: 4-6. Shogun’s career himself is winding down and isn’t near a title shot in most people’s opinion. Shogun literally has the advantage anywhere this fight goes: the ground, striking, and the clinch. And when I think about it, Vera doesn’t have the power for a puncher’s chance; therefore, there is quite literally no chance for him to win. It would be awesome to see him win though to resurge his career = Shogun by 4^th round TKO.  My pick for KOOTN!

Lyoto Machida vs. Ryan Bader: This fight is tough to pick. Bader has looked very good since his last loss to Tito and Machida looked like the old Machida in the first round against Jones back at UFC 140. Although, Bader’s last win wasn’t all that impressive due to the fact that it was a unanimous decision win over an extremely under motivated Rampage Jackson, it was still a win over a former champion and that certainly counts for something. But the one thing that I haven’t seen anyone talk about yet is the fact that this fight may have title implications on the line. Machida’s sole purpose in life is to be a champion, if this fight has a title shot at the end of it for the winner, then Machida is going to be one of the best fighters in the world due to motivation = Machida by 3^rd round TKO.

Jamie Varner vs. Joe Lauzon: This fight is another hard one to pick because Varner looked amazing in his last performance and Lauzon showed that he is capable of being KO’d in his. If Varner can come out with the same aggressiveness that he did against Barboza, then he should be able to win this one. Lauzon fights like such a veteran though. He’s patient and always finds a way to win. I really want to go with Varner but Lauzon is the much more careful pick = Lauzon by 2^nd round submission (choke). My pick for SOTN and 2^nd for FOTN!!

Mike Swick vs. DaMarques Johnson: I am super happy to finally see Swick making his comeback. After two and a half years of absence, he is returning in a big fight. The first fight on Fox is extremely important and both Johnson and Swick are highly entertaining fighters that love to bang. I see Swick winning this fight wherever it goes = Swick by unanimous decision.  My 3^rd pick for FOTN!

Prelims

Cole Miller vs. Nam Phan = Miller by 1^st round submission (triangle choke)

Phil Davis vs. Wagner Prado = Davis by 1^st round submission

Josh Grispi vs. Rani Yahya = Yahya by 3^rd round submission

Phil De Fries vs. Oli Thompson = De Fries by split decision

Manny Gamburyan vs. Michihiro Omigawa = Gamburyan by split decision

Ulysses Gomez vs. John Moraga = Gomez by 2^nd round submission (RNC). My 1^st pick for FOTN!

Dave’s Picks

Main Card

Mauricio "Shogun" Rua vs. Brandon Vera: This fight is weird and makes no sense in a lot of ways. Shogun has been fighting big names and 3 fights ago he was a champion. Vera is 1-2 in his last 3 but also lost a fight to Thiago Silva, but that was turned into a no contest when Silva tested positive for steroids. Vera has had a weird and up and down UFC career. However he finds himself in a title contender match against a guy who does not deserve one himself. Everyone is making a big deal that Vera should not get a shot at the title; well I am saying Shogun should not either. Shogun is only 4-4 in the UFC and is coming off a loss. Shogun beat Mark Coleman (8 years past his prime) in one of the sloppiest fights ever. He then beat Chuck Liddell (2 years past his prime). Then received a title shot and lost a close decision. Then KO’d Machida in an instant rematch for the title. Then lost the most one-sided title fight in which the champion lost that I have ever seen in MMA. Then he KO’d Forrest Griffin (2 years past his prime). Then he lost to Dan Henderson. What about this plus beating Vera equals a title shot? I don’t understand it. This fight might be fun or boring based on Shoguns aggressiveness. But I see Shogun being able to dominate in the clinch but I wouldn’t mind seeing resurgence in Vera. = Shogun by unanimous decision.

Ryan Bader vs. Lyoto Machida: Now this fight will be a fun one. Bader is going to have a hard time getting this to the ground. I think Bader is a tailor made opponent for the elusive Machida and I see Machida winning a decision that hopefully turns his career back around. = Machida by unanimous decision.

Joe Lauzon vs. Jamie Varner: This fight will be a ton of fun. Both of these guys go for it from bell to bell. I think Lauzon will have the advantage on the ground but Varner will have the advantage standing. I think if Varner can get out of the first round and wear Lauzon down he can take 2 out of the 3 rounds. = Varner by unanimous decision.  My Pick for Fight of the Night!

DaMarques Johnson vs. Mike Swick: If Swick didn’t miss two and a half years due to injuries then I would pick him to win in a heartbeat. Swick is faster, stronger and has better striking. Johnson might have the advantage on the ground. He looked good grappling against John Maguire before getting submitted. This one is hard to pick for me but I am going with Swick because he comes from a great camp with training partners that are much better than Johnson = Swick by unanimous decision.

Prelims

Cole Miller vs. Nam Phan: Miller by unanimous decision.

Phil Davis vs. Wagner Prado: Davis by unanimous decision.

Josh Grispi vs. Rani Yahya: Yahya by unanimous decision.

Phil De Fries vs. Oli Thompson: De Fries by unanimous decision.

Manny Gamburyan vs. Michihiro Omigawa: Omigawa by split decision.

Ulysses Gomez vs. John Moraga: Gomez by split decision.