The Ultimate Fighter 16 Finale Prelim Recap

TJ Waldburger made a great come-from-behind victory over the very strong Nick Catone
Picture via DevotedMMA.com

Only one decision in seven fights with that one decision being a potential Fight of the Night? Now that is a way to start off an event that people weren't talking about. With three brutal knockouts and two very slick submissions, the prelims have continued to provide with a ton of entertainment. 

Timothy Elliot vs. Jared Papazian: This fight went exactly how I expected it. An all-out war wherever the fight, whether it was on the ground or it was on the feet, neither of these guys gave up. Papazian is one of the more aggressive fighters at 125 and he continued to show it this fight. He instantly stalked Elliot backwards but Elliot would get him down on several occasions and threatened with a few guillotine chokes. Papazian is a pretty one-dimensional striker and Elliot took advantage of that with several takedown attempts. But once when Papazian was standing, he threw a knee as Elliot was falling backwards and it landed flush in the chin. Elliot’s butt was on the ground so it was highly illegal and Elliot was badly hurt. When they broke it up, he was stumbling all over the place and it seemed as though the fight would be stopped. The ref let it continue and Elliot continued to show dominance, the third round especially. Elliot took Papazian down and got his back. From there, he beat “The Jackhammer” down and bloodied him up. It was an easy 10-8 round and the judges agreed. This makes Papazian 0-3 in the UFC; he’s simply not UFC caliber and will be release.

Possible matchups for Elliot: I really like this kid: extremely entertaining, very talented, and charismatic. That is all the makings of a future UFC star. Considering the fact that he had such a close decision to the present number-one contender in John Dodson shows me he has the makings a contender. There aren’t a lot of choices at flyweight so I would like to see him fight John Lineker, who is coming off of a very dominant victory over Yasuhiro Urushitani.

Mike Rio vs. John Cofer: This was the one fight that I honestly had very little interest going into it. It was a shockingly fun fight from beginning to end. Cofer showed a very improved standup game right from the start, with quick leg kicks and powerful left hands. Rio, though, showed a very strong wrestling game, which we all knew going in, and landed some huge takedowns. Going into the third after two close first rounds, they both seemed to be drastically slowing down. Rio ended up getting a takedown and mounting him. He went for an armbar and after a long battle for it, Rio secured it for the tap. Cofer, now 0-2 in in two third round finishes, will be released following this loss.

Possible matchups for Rio: After not being able to compete at the TUF: Live due to a knee injury, this was a much needed win for Rio in his UFC debut. Now that he has the UFC jitters off his chest, I’m sure his next performance will be much better. The man for him to fight would be fellow grappler in Fabricio Camoes

Reuban Duran vs. Hugo Viana: We have a new name to watch at 135 pounds. Hugo Viana was the better fighter from the start on Saturday and he showed that he is much more comfortable at bantamweight than he is at featherweight. Duran is an extremely large bantamweight so Viana had his hands full in being able to cover distance in order to land anything. But his speed was lightning fast and Duran’s ring rust was apparent after taking a year and a half off. Viana dropped him three times in the first with the last finally putting Duran out and earning himself a 1^st round TKO victory (though it should have been a KO).

Possible matchups for Viana: This Brazilian has a ton of potential and I can’t wait to see how he develops as a fighter. His hand speed and power is very impressive for a 135er. I would like to see him fight the winner of Erik Perez vs. Byron Bloodworth (in other words, Perez).

Possible matchups for Duran: This fight now makes Duran 1-2 in the UFC, so he will be fighting for his job his next time out. There aren’t a lot of bantamweights that are close to being released so I would like to see him fight the loser of Perez vs. Bloodworth (in other words, Bloodworth).

TJ Waldburger vs. Nick Catone: This was a super fun grappling match. Catone looked to utilize his strength in the first round and, for the most part, succeeded quite well. He took Waldburger down and controlled him the majority of the opening stanza. In the second, Waldburger was a different man. He rocked Catone early and went for a guillotine. When he lost the guillotine, he locked in a really tight triangle and choked the New Jersey native unconscious.

Possible matchups for Waldburger: The Texan native is one of the most promising fighters in the UFC today. His striking is continually improving and his ground game is damn near masterful. Yoshihiro Akiyama is riding a 4-fight losing streak, but is still a very talented fighter. He would be a very hard test for the young Waldburger and I would love to see how TJ would do.

Possible matchups for Catone: This is Nick Catone’s second loss in a row in which he was finished. He will undoubtedly be fighting for his job his next time out so it only makes sense to have him fight in a loser goes home bout next. Lance Benoist is in a similar position so it only makes sense to have them fight.

Vinc Pichel vs. Rustam Khabilov: Holy crap do we have a future champ on our hands. Now, I did pick Khabilov to win but in no way did I think he was going to do what he did. After a moment of feeling each other out, the Sambo champion in Khabilov came out and he slammed the very large Pichel three times. Not just slams, but suplexes. It looked similar to what Rory MacDonald did to Nate Diaz back at UFC 129. But the third one put Pichel out and he finished him off with strikes. It was also an extremely late stoppage.

Possible matchups for Khabilov: Not only does Khabilov train out of Jackson’s MMA, but he is also only 26 years old. He has unlimited potential and I see him fighting for the title in the coming years. I think a fight that could be a very fun scrap between two very promising prospects would be with Makdessi and Khabilov.

Possible matchups for Pichel: I wouldn’t be surprised of Vinc is released following this loss, but he is a talented fighter. Brendan Loughnane is coming off of a very hard-fought decision loss to Mike Wilkinson and I would love to see a fight between these two.

Marcos Vinicius vs. Johnny Bedford: Here is another future contender to watch at 135. Marcos Vinicius had absolutely nothing on Bedford this whole fight. Johnny came out aggressive and picked Vinicius apart. He took him down and beat him there as well. It was a very dominant first round. In the second, Bedford did much of the same. He dropped Marcos early, landed a nasty body kick and knocked him out cold in a minute into the second round. Brutal is an extremely apt nickname for the TUF alumnus.

Possible matchups for Bedford: This guy holds a lot of potential in his hands. I’m very glad that he has finally healed up after a knee injury and I’m sure he is too. A fellow member of TUF 14 was Bryan Caraway, who is coming off of a fantastic 3^rd round submission win over Canadian Mitch Gagnon. This would be a very close, entertaining, and big fight for these guys.

Possible matchups for Vinicius: Marcos Vinicius almost lost his fight to Wagner Campos in his UFC debut at UFC 147 and after this loss to Bedford, he will be fighting for his job next time out. Jeff Hougland is coming off of two decisive decision losses to Yves Jabouin and Takeya Mizugaki. This fight makes perfect sense at these stages of their careers.

James Head vs. Mike Pyle: This was a fantastic two minute fight. Both these guys were looking to continue their winning streaks and they both fought like it. Head came out strong and really hurt Pyle on multiple occasions. Head has very technical standup and it showed in this fight. Pyle, though, is an extremely tenacious veteran and he came back with a knee and punches to finish off Head.

Possible matchups for Pyle: At 37 years old, Pyle is continuing to improve. After this performance, I would like to see him fight Mike Pierce, who is coming off of a win over Seth Baczynski just yesterday.

Possible matchups for Head: James Head started this fight strong, but Pyle was just too tough and Head exposed himself to a knee. I would like to see him fight Seth Baczynksi, who just lost to Mike Pierce yesterday.

The Ultimate Fighter 16 Finale Predictions

Dave’s Picks

Main Card

Matt Mitrione vs. Roy Nelson: This fight makes me nervous. Its not the fact Mitrione took this fight on short notice because he had a fight lined up anyway. What makes me nervous is that Mitrione hasn’t fought in over a year and is coming off his first and only loss. Roy Nelson has been quite active but his results have been mixed to say the least. This fight is hard for me to pick. I like Mitrione and I think he could have a good future ahead of him and I think we have seen Nelson’s ceiling in this sport. I want Mitrione to win but the safer pick is Nelson. Nelson has the better ground game and I think is just too seasoned. I think Roy will take it to the ground and grind it out. = Nelson by unanimous decision.

Mike Ricci vs. Colton Smith: This season was really bad and I questioned why I was watching it during almost every episode but Ricci is what made me keep watching. He is the only guy who showed true promise (Jon Manley showed some too). I think Ricci is well rounded and has an amazing training camp behind him. Ricci has also beaten good fighters and his two loses are to very good fighters. Colton does not have a good resume. I think with a full camp with TriStar will be way too much for Colton who is a one trick pony…no pun intended. Colton does have a chance to win but it is holding Ricci down for 15 minutes. I think Ricci can do enough in this fight to pick up the win. = Ricci by unanimous decision.

Patrick Barry vs. Shane del Rosario: I love Pat Barry fights. Can’t wait for this one. Shane should take him down and ride out a decision while going for subs but Shane didn’t look all that great against Stipe Miocic. Barry has a great chance at knocking Shane out so cold he wakes up 5 years from now. But Shane has more ways to win. This is a close one for me but I am going with who I think is the safe pick. = SDR by submission in round 2. My Pick for Submission of the Night!

Melvin Guillard vs. Jamie Varner: Wowza. I see this fight going almost identical to Melvin vs. Jim Miller. I see Varner getting it to the ground and ending it there. But Varner needs to be careful because Melvin can KO anyone at 155. But I see Varner playing it smart and picking up a finish. = Varner by submission in round 2.

Jonathan Brookins vs. Dustin Poirier: Fight of the year candidate right here. Both of these guys are super fast and well rounded. I think Brookins has the better ground game and maybe even the more technical striking but I think the ever improving Poirier will come out guns blazing and win a close decision by controlling the pace and keeping is where he likes it. = Poirier by unanimous decision. My Pick for Fight of the Night!

Prelims

James Head vs. Mike Pyle = Pyle by unanimous decision.

Johnny Bedford vs. Marcos Vinicius = Vinicius by submission in round 1.

Rustam Khabilov vs. Vinc Pichel = Pichel by split decision.

Nick Catone vs. T.J. Waldburger = Waldburger by split decision.

Reuben Duran vs. Hugo Viana = Duran by unanimous decision.

John Cofer vs. Mike Rio = Rio by unanimous decision.

Tim Elliott vs. Jared Papazian = Elliot by split decision.

Sam's Picks

Main Card

Roy Nelson vs. Matt Mitrione: Man, I’m having trouble with who I want to pick in this fight. Nelson has yet to really impress me with anything other than his power. His wins over Schaub, Struve, and Herman are all great, but he hasn’t shown any real technique aside from a great right hand. Mitrione has tons of potential but he’s been out for so long and he’s coming off of his first loss, so I’m not sure he can hang with Nelson. I don’t think that Nelson will be able to finish him and vice versa. But the thing to take into consideration is the fact that this is a 5 round fight. Nelson’s cardio is famous for being downright awful. Mitrione is the opposite. Considering he’s a former professional football player, he is unbelievably athletic, fast, and has great cardio for a heavyweight. I see Nelson winning the first two rounds due to aggression and takedown attempts, but then Mitrione takes advantage of Nelson’s gas tank and wins the last three rounds = Mitrione via unanimous decision.

 

Mike Ricci vs. Colton Smith: Like Dave said, Ricci was the only real reason that I continued to watch the TUF season. He’s a natural lightweight and destroyed everyone at welterweight on TUF to get to the finals. Colton Smith is a very strong and talented wrestler but his standup is rather weak. Ricci is very good at all facets of MMA. Colton showed in his fight with Eddy Ellis that he is capable of being KO’d and I think that’s exactly what Ricci is going to do = Ricci via 1^st round KO. My pick for KOOTN!

 

Pat Barry vs. Shane Del Rosario: I really like this fight in terms of entertainment. Pat Barry always puts on awesome fights and Shane is no different. Barry really seems to not be a UFC caliber fighter while Shane shows a lot of promise. Shane will take him down and will finish him with strikes. It won’t fail to be an awesome fight though = Del Rosario via 3^rd round TKO. My 3^rd pick for FOTN!

 

Jamie Varner vs. Melvin Guillard: Oh dear lord am I looking forward to this fight. Ever since Varner’s return to the UFC, he has looked great despite his loss to Lauzon, where he even had a lot of good moments. Guillard is the type of fighter that has shown tons of greatness in his fights but his ground game has always been his downfall. Varner has a great ground game and after an incredible slugfest, Varner will submit him with Guillard’s arch nemesis = Varner via 2^nd round RNC. My 1^st pick for FOTN! My pick for SOTN!

 

Dustin Poirier vs. Jonathon Brookins: Both of these guys are very similar fighters; with underrated standup and a very dangerous ground game, this fight will be very close. I feel as though we have all been overrating Brookins a little too much. I mean, Oliveira completely dominated him in every aspect of MMA and a lot of people felt as though Brookins would win that, including myself. Poirier has finally changed to a really good camp in American Top Team and will be the best Dustin Poirier that we have seen = Poirier via unanimous decision.

 

Prelims

James Head vs. Mike Pyle = Pyle via unanimous decision.

Johnny Bedford vs. Marcos Vinicius = Bedford via 3^rd round TKO.

Rustam Khabilov vs. Vinc Pichel = Khabilov via unanimous decision.

Nick Catone vs. T.J Waldburger = Waldburger via unanimous decision.

Reuben Duran vs. Hugo Viana = Duran via split decision.

John Cofer vs. Mike Rio = Rio by unanimous decision.

Tim Elliott vs. Jared Papazian = Papazian via split decision. My 2^nd pick for FOTN!