UFC 145: Jones vs. Evans Predictions

Dave’s Picks

Main Card

Jon Jones vs. Rashad Evans: I have been waiting for this fight for what seems like an eternity. This fight is a huge deal here where I live. I will actually be watching this in Rashad’s hometown of Niagara Falls! Because both these guys are from Western New York the area is split and there is a lot of tension between the two sides. Should be a crazy night regardless of who wins. (I’ll let you know in the recap how crazy it got!) But I could go on forever but I will break this down quickly. Jones is much bigger and his reach will be almost 1 foot longer. That is crazy. If Rashad wants to win he has to get in close for either his punches to land or to get a takedown. In doing that he puts himself into great danger. Jones has amazing clinch grappling, with his Greco-Roman, and sick clinch striking with his incredible elbow strikes. If Thiago Silva, Rampage and Lyoto can rock Rashad then Jones should be able to knock his block off. But Rashad is a great fighter in his own right. The guy is a winner, plain and simple. He has put together a great formula that has become very effective for him. He gets in close, puts pressure on his opponent, takes him down and then ground and pounds. It works. However, Jones adapts to each fighter and has the coaches that taught Rashad almost everything he knows. There is too much going right for Jones. = Jones by submission in round 3. My Pick for Submission of the Night! (And Fight of the Night #2)

Rory MacDonald vs. Che Mills: This fight will most likely be a one-sided beat down. I say this not because Mills is a bad fighter but because Rory, in my opinion, is on an elite level. Rory has great wrestling, submissions and even his striking is good. His main advantages lie in his speed and strength. I see Rory pushing Mills around and eventually getting in to the ground and locking in a choke. = Rory by TKO in round 2. My Pick for KO of the Night!

Ben Rothwell vs. Brendan Schaub: Ben Rothwell never really impressed me throughout his career. His size and durability seemed to get him this far. Schaub is a very well rounded fighter and if he can avoid Big Ben’s bombs he should easily take this. I see Schaub wearing down Rothwell who has very mediocre cardio with superior striking and grappling. = Schaub by unanimous decision.

Michael McDonald vs. Miguel Torres: Although McDonald has the ability to one day be a title challenger I just think this was too much too fast. Torres is just too seasoned and smart at this point. Torres should use his jab to keep the distance and should be able to outbox McDonald. And if it goes to the ground Torres has the advantage there as well. It stinks to see a top prospect get derailed like this but Torres should take this. = Torres by unanimous decision. My Pick for Fight of the Night!

Mark Hominick vs. Eddie Yagin: No offense to Eddie Yagin but the UFC obviously setup this fight so Hominick could get an easy win and have him fight a big name in September in Toronto. I think Yagin is better suited for bantamweight and is not UFC worthy talent. If Hominick comes out and smart then he should win this easily. = Hominick by TKO in round 2. 

John Alessio vs. Mark Bocek: First off let me start by saying Bocek is a very underrated fighter. His grappling is top-notch. Bocek just came off of a very solid win over Nik Lentz; which we saw live at UFC 140. Alessio is taking this fight on short notice and I just don’t see how he will be able to handle Bocek’s ground game. If Alessio can keep it standing he has somewhat of a chance but Alessio has proven he is just not UFC quality with his overall UFC record being 0-3. I see Bocek getting this to the ground and keeping it there. = Bocek by unanimous decision.

Prelims

Travis Browne vs. Chad Griggs: Browne by unanimous decision.

Matt Brown vs. Stephen Thompson: Thompson by unanimous decision.

John Makdessi vs. Anthony Njokuani: Njokuani by unanimous decision.

Mac Danzig vs. Efrain Escudero: Danzig by unanimous decision.

Chris Clements vs. Keith Wisniewski: Clements by split decision.

Maximo Blanco vs. Marcus Brimage: Blanco by unanimous decision.

Sam’s Picks

Main Card

Jon Jones vs. Rashad Evans: Finally, the wait is over for the rivalry to end! I am so excited for this fight! People keep saying that this fight is going to be Jones’ hardest test to date but I completely disagree with that. Machida was his hardest test and will be his hardest test for some time. Machida controlled the pace of the first round and the beginning of the second but Jones showed that he has adaption skills of a champion and overcame Machida’s unorthodox style. Rashad is nothing even close to the type of fighter that Machida is. Rashad is also way too small for 205 while Jones is almost too big for the weight cut, giving him the size advantage. Jones has the longest reach in the UFC while Rashad’s reach is nearly a foot shorter than Jones, giving Jones a huge reach advantage. Jones is also much more mature than and isn’t going to fight angry, giving him the mentality advantage. Jones is way more technical on the feet along with power and speed while Rashad only has power, good power though. The submission game definitely goes to Jones who has very good Jiu Jitsu so that leaves wrestling. That is the only toss up and I would probably give it to Rashad based on his takedown defense recently along with some nasty takedowns of his own. The only advantages that go to Rashad are power and a slight upper hand in wrestling, so what does that mean? Jones is going to win handily = Jones by 2nd round TKO. My pick for KOOTN!

Rory MacDonald vs. Che Mills: This fight confuses me. MacDonald is being considered the future of the UFC and Che Mills is a virtual nobody. Sure Mills had an impressive debut but it was only against Chris Cope. Mills doesn’t stand a chance against MacDonald = MacDonald by 1st round TKO.

Ben Rothwell vs. Brendan Schaub: Ben Rothwell has been one of the more underwhelming fighters that has ever entered the octagon. Rothwell came into the UFC with big name and has looked really bad in all of his fights including the one win. Schaub’s key to victory is keeping his chin tucked and pick him apart on the feet. Schuab will hand Rothwell a defeat along with the pink slip = Schaub by unanimous decision.

Michael McDonald vs. Miguel Torres: This is an awesome fight! A young phenom against a very seasoned veteran. McDonald is one of those kids who has such a bright future, it’s insane and Torres is just such a well rounded fighter and has been fighting for a very long time, his record is 40-4 for God’s sake, that looks like a boxing record. This one is a really hard one to call but McDonald just isn’t on Torres’ level yet, but he will be, just give him time. Remember McDonald is only 21 years old = Torres by split decision. My 3rd pick for FOTN!

Mark Hominick vs. Eddie Yagin: This fight clearly seems to be a fight just to get the Canadian star back on track after his devastating loss to The Korean Zombie. Yagin’s debut was against Junior Assuncao and Assuncao easily beat him. If Assuncao and Hominick fought, I would pick Hominick to easily win. Hominick will easily dispose of Eddie Yagin = Hominick by 1st round submission (choke). My pick for SOTN!

John Alessio vs. Mark Bocek: People are most likely going to disagree with my choice on this fight but hear me out. Sure Alessio is 0-3 in the UFC but you have to look at who those are to. Pat Miletich by submission, (A prime) Diego Sanchez by decision, and (A prime) Thiago Alves by decision. Those are some hard opponents along with the fact that he was fighting at welterweight instead of lightweight, his natural weight class. Now let’s take a look at Bocek. Bocek has only lost 4 times in his career and they are to Benson Henderson, Jim Miller, Mac Danzig, and Frankie Edgar. Along with Alessio, these are some tough opponents but you also have to look at their performances. Bocek looked absolutely terrible against all of those guys while Alessio looked underwhelming at best. The best thing that Bocek did in any of those was that he mounted Ben Henderson, which is extremely impressive. Another factor we have to take in is the fact that Bocek has a lot of trouble against well rounded guys. Alessio is an extremely well rounded guy with dynamic stand up and slick submissions. Bocek is a purely submission based fighter. Bocek also has trouble against guys that are larger than him and Alessio is going to be much larger than him. Alessio is going to win this fight, despite his underdog status and late fight replacement = Alessio by unanimous decision.

Prelims
Travis Browne vs. Chad Griggs = Browne by split decision.
Matt Brown vs. Stephen Thompson = Thompson by 1st round TKO.
John Makdessi vs. Anthony Njokuani = Njokuani by unanimous decision. My 1st pick for FOTN!
Mac Danzig vs. Efrain Escudero = Danzig by 3rd round submission (choke).
Chris Clements vs. Keith Wisniewski = Wisniewski by split decision.
Maximo Blanco vs. Marcus Brimage = Blanco by unanimous decision. My 2nd pick for FOTN!

Dave: Catch the Prelims on Facebook and FX and the Main Card is found only on PPV. Make sure you tune in to our Tweeter feed for live results. This card is loaded and the main event will define the UFC for many years to come. If Rashad loses then he joins the ranks of the many foes Jones has defeated. However, if Rashad wins then I believe the feud will continue and Jones will eventually get a rematch. Remember Jones is only 24 and Rashad is 32. If Rashad falls it could hurt him ever getting a shot again. But if Jones loses then he could easily work his way back to tile contention before he retires. I cannot wait for this fight! Make sure you tune in Saturday!