UFC on FX 4: Guida vs. Maynard Predictions

Sam’s Picks

Main Card  

Clay Guida vs. Gray Maynard: This fight is tough. Both of these guys are coming off losses and are looking to launch themselves into the title picture with a win. Now we have to look at something, this is the main event, meaning it is a 5 round fight. Maynard has always had trouble with cardio while Guida is known for having some of the best in MMA. This is how I see the fight going. Maynard comes out strong and lands a few big punches with not much action and wins the first. Guida comes out to take a round and he is the busier fighter and lands more punches, winning the second. The third is very close with both fighters scoring takedowns and landing solid shots. Maynard is now visibly slowing down and Guida capitalizes, winning the fourth and fifth handily. Maynard gets the first and Guida gets the second fourth and fifth with the third being very close = Guida by split decision. My 3rd pick for FOTN!

Spencer Fisher vs. Sam Stout III: This fight is undoubtedly going to be very fun. Their first two fights are known for being some of the best in UFC history and also being very, very close. The first fight has some people saying that Fisher was robbed of a win when he lost by split decision. The second was close again but this time Fisher did win. The third will be different though. Stout has been creeping towards title contention, despite a recent loss to Thiago Tavares. Fisher, on the other hand, is getting near retirement. He has lost 4 of his last 5 fights. Stout will be quicker, landing more combos and possibly takedowns = Stout by unanimous decision. My 2nd pick for FOTN!

TJ Waldburger vs. Brian Ebersole: This fight is one of the easier fights to pick on the whole card. Although Waldburger has a huge amount of potential, Ebersole is just simply to experienced for a young gun like Waldburger. Waldurger will enter title contention one day but Ebersole is just simply too unorthodox = Ebersole by 3rd round TKO.

Ross Pearson vs. Cub Swanson: I am very confused why this fight is on the main card when Hioki/Lamas isn’t. Two title contenders on the prelims while two guys trying to get there on the main card? Weird. Anyway, this fight has all the works to be fight of the night (which probably answers my question). Both of these guys are two of the most entertaining fighters at 145. It’s also a very hard fight to predict. Swanson looked amazing in his fight with Roop while Pearson looked okay against Junior Assuncao. Swanson could definitely win this but I am going with Pearson = Pearson by unanimous decision. My 1st pick for FOTN!
 

Prelims
Hatsu Hioki vs. Ricardo Lamas = Lamas by unanimous decision
C.J. Keith vs. Ramsey Nijem = Nijem by 1st round submission (choke). My pick for SOTN!
Brock Jardine vs. Rick Story = Story by unanimous decision
Joey Gambino vs. Steven Siler = Siler by 2nd round TKO
Matt Brown vs. Luis Ramos = Brown by 1st round TKO. My pick for KOOTN!
Chis Camozzi vs. Nick Catone = Catone by unanimous decision
Ricardo Funch vs. Dan Miller = Miller by unanimous decision
Dustin Pague vs. Ken Stone = Pague by 1st round submission (RNC)

Dave’s Picks

Main Card

Clay Guida vs. Gray Maynard: This should be an interesting fight. Gray will be stronger, have better wrestling and most likely, he will also have the better boxing. But Guida will have much better cardio. I think Guida and the Jackson camp will try to emulate Frankie Edgar’s game plan that helped him defeat Maynard. But Guida does not have the skills to mirror Edgar. Edgar was champ for a reason, his boxing is slick. Maynard was able to land and land hard against Edgar but then got tired quickly. We all know that Maynard can go three rounds easy but when he gets to the championship rounds (yea I wrote that) I think he will fade fast against the cardio machine that is Guida. Guida has never been KO’ed and he has fought some tough guys and I don’t think Gray will be the first to do that. This one will be very close and this is a hard pick but I’m going with the underdog. = Guida by unanimous decision. 

Spencer Fisher vs. Sam Stout: this is the final fight of their trilogy and it has been a great couple of fights. Both were very entertaining. In the first fight Stout won a very close split decision; I thought Fisher won. Then in their second meeting Fisher won by unanimous decision. Fisher has had a great career but it is winding down quickly he is 1-4 in his last 5 (23-4 before that). He is 36 years old and his prime is over with but he still had fast and technical hands. Stout did not look good in his last fight but his fight before that, against Yves Edwards, was one of best KO’s of the year. I think Spence might still have the speed advantage and could actually win but if Stout can get his reach and timing down he will win for sure. = Stout by split decision. My Pick for Fight of the Night!

Brian Ebersole vs. T.J. Waldburger: Waldburger has looked great since his loss to Hendricks in the beginning of 2011. On the otherside, Eberosle did not look great in his fight with Claude Patrick. However, Ebersole has defeated some stiff competition in the past and should be able to handle Waldburger. Ebersole should be able to win as long as he does not end up on his back. I see Ebersole dictating the standup and taking a relatively easy decision. = Ebersole by unanimous decision. 

Ross Pearson vs. Cub Swanson: This should be a fun fight. Cub is a strong and fast brawler and Pearson is a technical and methodical boxer. I think Cub is more well-rounded in the wrestling and submissions but Ross should have the edge on the feet. Ross had defeated the tougher competition and I feel more comfortable picking him. I think if Pearson can keep it on the feet he will win a close decision. = Pearson by unanimous decision.

Prelims

Hatsu Hioki vs. Ricardo Lamas: Lamas by unanimous decision.

C.J. Keith vs. Ramsey Nijem: Nijem by unanimous decision.

Brock Jardine vs. Rick Story: Story by unanimous decision.

Joey Gambino vs. Steven Siler: Siler by submission in round 2. My Pick for submission of the Night!

Matt Brown vs. Luis Ramos: Brown by split decision.

Chis Camozzi vs. Nick Catone: Catone by unanimous decision.

Ricardo Funch vs. Dan Miller: Miller by unanimous decision.

Dustin Pague vs. Ken Stone: Pague by submission in round 2.