Dave’s Picks
Main Card
Matt Mitrione vs. Roy Nelson: This fight makes me nervous. Its not the fact Mitrione took this fight on short notice because he had a fight lined up anyway. What makes me nervous is that Mitrione hasn’t fought in over a year and is coming off his first and only loss. Roy Nelson has been quite active but his results have been mixed to say the least. This fight is hard for me to pick. I like Mitrione and I think he could have a good future ahead of him and I think we have seen Nelson’s ceiling in this sport. I want Mitrione to win but the safer pick is Nelson. Nelson has the better ground game and I think is just too seasoned. I think Roy will take it to the ground and grind it out. = Nelson by unanimous decision.
Mike Ricci vs. Colton Smith: This season was really bad and I questioned why I was watching it during almost every episode but Ricci is what made me keep watching. He is the only guy who showed true promise (Jon Manley showed some too). I think Ricci is well rounded and has an amazing training camp behind him. Ricci has also beaten good fighters and his two loses are to very good fighters. Colton does not have a good resume. I think with a full camp with TriStar will be way too much for Colton who is a one trick pony…no pun intended. Colton does have a chance to win but it is holding Ricci down for 15 minutes. I think Ricci can do enough in this fight to pick up the win. = Ricci by unanimous decision.
Patrick Barry vs. Shane del Rosario: I love Pat Barry fights. Can’t wait for this one. Shane should take him down and ride out a decision while going for subs but Shane didn’t look all that great against Stipe Miocic. Barry has a great chance at knocking Shane out so cold he wakes up 5 years from now. But Shane has more ways to win. This is a close one for me but I am going with who I think is the safe pick. = SDR by submission in round 2. My Pick for Submission of the Night!
Melvin Guillard vs. Jamie Varner: Wowza. I see this fight going almost identical to Melvin vs. Jim Miller. I see Varner getting it to the ground and ending it there. But Varner needs to be careful because Melvin can KO anyone at 155. But I see Varner playing it smart and picking up a finish. = Varner by submission in round 2.
Jonathan Brookins vs. Dustin Poirier: Fight of the year candidate right here. Both of these guys are super fast and well rounded. I think Brookins has the better ground game and maybe even the more technical striking but I think the ever improving Poirier will come out guns blazing and win a close decision by controlling the pace and keeping is where he likes it. = Poirier by unanimous decision. My Pick for Fight of the Night!
Prelims
James Head vs. Mike Pyle = Pyle by unanimous decision.
Johnny Bedford vs. Marcos Vinicius = Vinicius by submission in round 1.
Rustam Khabilov vs. Vinc Pichel = Pichel by split decision.
Nick Catone vs. T.J. Waldburger = Waldburger by split decision.
Reuben Duran vs. Hugo Viana = Duran by unanimous decision.
John Cofer vs. Mike Rio = Rio by unanimous decision.
Tim Elliott vs. Jared Papazian = Elliot by split decision.
Sam's Picks
Main Card
Roy Nelson vs. Matt Mitrione: Man, I’m having trouble with who I want to pick in this fight. Nelson has yet to really impress me with anything other than his power. His wins over Schaub, Struve, and Herman are all great, but he hasn’t shown any real technique aside from a great right hand. Mitrione has tons of potential but he’s been out for so long and he’s coming off of his first loss, so I’m not sure he can hang with Nelson. I don’t think that Nelson will be able to finish him and vice versa. But the thing to take into consideration is the fact that this is a 5 round fight. Nelson’s cardio is famous for being downright awful. Mitrione is the opposite. Considering he’s a former professional football player, he is unbelievably athletic, fast, and has great cardio for a heavyweight. I see Nelson winning the first two rounds due to aggression and takedown attempts, but then Mitrione takes advantage of Nelson’s gas tank and wins the last three rounds = Mitrione via unanimous decision.
Mike Ricci vs. Colton Smith: Like Dave said, Ricci was the only real reason that I continued to watch the TUF season. He’s a natural lightweight and destroyed everyone at welterweight on TUF to get to the finals. Colton Smith is a very strong and talented wrestler but his standup is rather weak. Ricci is very good at all facets of MMA. Colton showed in his fight with Eddy Ellis that he is capable of being KO’d and I think that’s exactly what Ricci is going to do = Ricci via 1st round KO. My pick for KOOTN!
Pat Barry vs. Shane Del Rosario: I really like this fight in terms of entertainment. Pat Barry always puts on awesome fights and Shane is no different. Barry really seems to not be a UFC caliber fighter while Shane shows a lot of promise. Shane will take him down and will finish him with strikes. It won’t fail to be an awesome fight though = Del Rosario via 3rd round TKO. My 3rd pick for FOTN!
Jamie Varner vs. Melvin Guillard: Oh dear lord am I looking forward to this fight. Ever since Varner’s return to the UFC, he has looked great despite his loss to Lauzon, where he even had a lot of good moments. Guillard is the type of fighter that has shown tons of greatness in his fights but his ground game has always been his downfall. Varner has a great ground game and after an incredible slugfest, Varner will submit him with Guillard’s arch nemesis = Varner via 2nd round RNC. My 1st pick for FOTN! My pick for SOTN!
Dustin Poirier vs. Jonathon Brookins: Both of these guys are very similar fighters; with underrated standup and a very dangerous ground game, this fight will be very close. I feel as though we have all been overrating Brookins a little too much. I mean, Oliveira completely dominated him in every aspect of MMA and a lot of people felt as though Brookins would win that, including myself. Poirier has finally changed to a really good camp in American Top Team and will be the best Dustin Poirier that we have seen = Poirier via unanimous decision.
Prelims
James Head vs. Mike Pyle = Pyle via unanimous decision.
Johnny Bedford vs. Marcos Vinicius = Bedford via 3rd round TKO.
Rustam Khabilov vs. Vinc Pichel = Khabilov via unanimous decision.
Nick Catone vs. T.J Waldburger = Waldburger via unanimous decision.
Reuben Duran vs. Hugo Viana = Duran via split decision.
John Cofer vs. Mike Rio = Rio by unanimous decision.
Tim Elliott vs. Jared Papazian = Papazian via split decision. My 2nd pick for FOTN!
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