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Wednesday, December 5, 2012

UFC on Fox 5 Predictions



Sam’s Picks
Main Card

Ben Henderson vs. Nate Diaz: This event is absolutely ridiculous. The amount of awesomeness that it exudes is overwhelming and this is the perfect fight to cap it off. Many people believe that Ben Henderson should not be the champion and I am certainly one of those people, I personally felt it was quite obvious that Frankie won that second fight. But anyways, Nate Diaz has looked insanely good in his last three fights, and I mean like he completely changed as a fighter. After the ill-advised trip up to welterweight, Diaz came back down to lightweight and absolutely dominated his next three opponents. But those weren’t just any opponents, he destroyed Takanori Gomi everywhere the fight went, landed the most significant strikes in a three round fight against Cerrone, and became the first ever person to finish Jim Miller after destroying him for one and a half rounds. Henderson is the type of fighter who is almost impossible to finish.  Diaz certainly has the skills to be able to finish him, but the chances are slim. Diaz has the better technique and striking, but the grappling department is hard to choose. Diaz has the much better submissions and Judo while Henderson is extremely strong with very solid wrestling. This is simply Nate Diaz’ time and he will continue to dominate = Diaz via unanimous decision. My 1st pick for FOTN!

Alexander Gustafsson vs. Shogun Rua: This fight is fairly easy to predict in my opinion. Shogun looked horrible in his last fight against Brandon Vera while Gustafsson has barely shown a blemish in his last 5 victories. Shogun’s gas tank has shown to be pretty terrible in his last few fights while Gustafsson hasn’t shown much of a problem in that department. I see Gustafsson picking Shogun apart from the outside while his much longer reach en route to a dominant unanimous decision victory = Gustafsson via unanimous decision.

BJ Penn vs. Rory MacDonald: I am so pumped for this fight. It’s great to see BJ come back for one last fight before calling it quits to one of the greatest careers the MMA world has ever seen. But the main thing I am looking forward to in this fight is how Rory will do against the very best fighter he has ever fought. Many people could argue that the best fighter he has fought is Carlos Condit, but that was the fight before Condit really turned up his game and became a top welterweight. BJ has shown unbelievable motivation for this fight and looks to be in the best shape of his entire career. MacDonald will certainly have his hands full but he will simply be the hungrier, stronger, and larger fighter = MacDonald via unanimous decision.

Mike Swick vs. Matt Brown: BARNBURNER ALERT – Now this is the way to kick off this Fox card. Matt Brown never disappoints in putting on barnburners and Fight of the Night contenders and with a similar fighter in Mike Swick, this will be even better. If this fight stays standing I personally believe that Brown will win this fight, but once it goes to the ground Swick has a significant advantage. Swick’s last performance wasn’t very good for a reason, he had been out for over two years. Now that he has most of his ring rust gone, he will look much better in this fight. This will be a war from the beginning and I see Swick securing a late guillotine for the finish = Mike Swick via 3rd round submission (guillotine). My 2nd pick for FOTN! MY pick for SOTN!

Prelims
Yves Edwards vs. Jeremy Stephens = Stephens via 3rd round KO.
Raphael Assuncao vs. Mike Easton = Easton via unanimous decision.
Ramsey Nijem vs. Joe Proctor = Nijem via unanimous decision.
Daron Cruickshank vs. Henry Martinez = Cruickshank via unanimous decision.
Marcus LeVesseur vs. Abel Trujillo = Trujillo via 3rd round TKO.
Nam Phan vs. Dennis Siver = Siver via 2nd round KO. My pick for KOOTN!
Scott Jorgensen vs. John Albert = Jorgensen via 3rd round submission. My 3rd pick for FOTN!


Dave’s Picks
Main Card

Ben Henderson vs. Nate Diaz: Wow what a fight! I rarely pick against champions. The two most recent times were JDS over Cain and Frankie over Ben Henderson. So I’m 1-1 recently when picking against champions. Here I hope to make it 2-1. I truly think Nate Diaz has perfected his game and has entered into his prime. The way he tore apart Gomi, Cerrone and Miller blew my freaking mind! He made it look easy! He has become an elite killer and I have to pick him here. Diaz’s takedown defense is not great but his grappling skills are ridiculous and I think Henderson will have to be on top of his submission defense. This is how the fight will go: Diaz is beating Henderson on the feet, Henderson gets the takedown and is almost submitted a few times. He decides he rather try and land that one big bomb instead of being submitted. Diaz continues to win on the feet and takes it by a close decision. = Diaz by unanimous decision. 

Alexander Gustafsson vs. Shogun Rua: Another amazing fight. This pick has a lot to do with Shogun’s last performance. Shogun barely won a fight against Brandon Vera. Gustafsson is infinitely better than Vera. Gustafsson will use his reach and technically superior striking to stay out of Shogun’s range. But never ever count out Shogun. He has enough power to KO anyone at 205 but I think Gustafsson is going to own this match and take a huge step in his career. = Gustafsson by unanimous decision. 

BJ Penn vs. Rory MacDonald: And another crazy fight! I agree with Sam that this will be Rory’s hardest fight to date. I think he will struggle in this one more than any other fight. I know that BJ’s name alone with scare Rory a little bit but nothing he can’t handle. I think BJ will have the better standup, I really do. But Rory is so rangy and hard to control. I think Rory’s best bet to win is to get the takedown and stay out of trouble. BJ never submits anyone off his back so I think Rory will be ok. Rory is a big welterweight and I think he will be able to get the takedown after a couple attempts. Luckily Rory has great coaching and they will once again find a way for one of their fighters to win against Penn. = MacDonald by unanimous decision. My Pick for Fight of the Night!

Mike Swick vs. Matt Brown: Another fun fight. I think this fight will be crazy close. I think Brown is better on the ground and has more power in the striking department. But Swick is more technical and much faster. He will have to use that speed in a major way but I think Brown can make it an ugly fight and drag Swick to the ground and grind it out. = Brown by unanimous decision.

Prelims
Yves Edwards vs. Jeremy Stephens = Stephens by KO in round 2. My Pick for KO of the Night!
Raphael Assuncao vs. Mike Easton = Assuncao by unanimous decision.
Ramsey Nijem vs. Joe Proctor = Nijem by unanimous decision.
Daron Cruickshank vs. Henry Martinez = Cruickshank by unanimous decision.
Marcus LeVesseur vs. Abel Trujillo = LeVesseur via split decision.
Nam Phan vs. Dennis Siver = Siver by unanimous decision.
Scott Jorgensen vs. John Albert = Jorgensen by unanimous decision.

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